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Mining a longest fork and maintaining it is probable if you have more than 50%. If you have less than 50%, there is still a chance, but eventually, the main chain will catch up.

For example, even if I'm a pool with 25% of mining power, I could still occasionally find 2 blocks in a row. But I won't maintain that lead because in general, over time, for every 1 block I find, 3 other blocks will be found.

It looks like this paper's technique is to take advantage of those temporary situations where one pool is lucky enough to get ahead.




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