> Can anyone think of other cases where science is used to predict the future of complex systems more than 2 years in advance?
Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever.
The forward-looking aspect of the science of cosmology.
Lots more.
> So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault."
That's more indicative of the biases through which you filter the available information (perhaps most importantly, the bias in the information sources from which you receive information -- e.g., if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media, there's a pretty heavy bias in what predictions you are going to hear about.)
> Sure, all business do forecasting. That's pretty simple stuff.
Lots of it involves predicting the behavior of complex economic and social systems using empirically-tested (scientific) methodologies.
> That's true, where should I be looking? Can you link to specific examples?
If you want to know about where science is used to predict the behavior of complex systems, one place to look would be the scientific literature of fields which are concerned with the behavior of complex systems.
Every empirically-based plan for business, long-term policy, etc., ever. The forward-looking aspect of the science of cosmology. Lots more.
> So far, the only ones I can think of are models that always spit out the same message... "The earth is dying and we're at fault."
That's more indicative of the biases through which you filter the available information (perhaps most importantly, the bias in the information sources from which you receive information -- e.g., if the main place you get information about "science used to predict the future of complex systems" is the mainstream commercial media, there's a pretty heavy bias in what predictions you are going to hear about.)