My own basic conclusion is included in the first section, the bits starting with "The confidence interval excludes zero, so one might conclude that n-back does increase IQ scores. From a Bayesian standpoint, it's worth pointing out that this is not nearly as conclusive as it seems, for two reasons:..."
As it happens, the active-control-group studies seem to be converging on zero, so I don't even have to appeal to priors. But if the result had been to find, say, d=0.4, I still wouldn't believe it: it would be more likely that the IQ tests are being corrupted, or publication bias had caused this, or fraud was involved, than we would have found a simple WM exercise which genuinely increased IQ after countless failures.
I do, of course, want to finish up the details (correct the Clouter data, and include the Seidler et al 2010 and Colom et al 2013 data) before I write up any kind of definitive conclusion & do a post-mortem of dual n-back.
As it happens, the active-control-group studies seem to be converging on zero, so I don't even have to appeal to priors. But if the result had been to find, say, d=0.4, I still wouldn't believe it: it would be more likely that the IQ tests are being corrupted, or publication bias had caused this, or fraud was involved, than we would have found a simple WM exercise which genuinely increased IQ after countless failures.
I do, of course, want to finish up the details (correct the Clouter data, and include the Seidler et al 2010 and Colom et al 2013 data) before I write up any kind of definitive conclusion & do a post-mortem of dual n-back.