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The Best Part of Grand Theft Auto V is the Stock-Trading Platform (nymag.com)
152 points by golfstrom on Sept 30, 2013 | hide | past | favorite | 105 comments



I...bought...twenty shares of Augury Insurance (which sells auto insurance — a good bet, considering all the cars I've been wrecking)

I'd argue the opposite, no? The 100-year-storm of destruction that we, as Player 1, unleash upon the poor Liberty City automotive world would probably make any insurance company run screaming and crying in the opposite direction of profitability.

"We had HOW MANY claims yesterday afternoon??"

:)


I used to work in insurance in a hurricane zone. Yes, claims hurt an insurance company, but right after the storm is also when everyone calls up and upgrades their policies. I would say its a wash, if not actually a positive. If 5 homes get knocked over by a tornado, it is pretty much free advertising to millions of homes in the region as it makes the news rounds.


Plus, if you're an insurance company in a hurricane zone, you carry a "megacat" (a catastrophic event insurance which is rather larger than most consumer grade policies, to put it mildly) policy underwritten by, most of the time, Berkshire Hathaway. If you sustain $1 billion in claims then you call up Warren Buffet and say "Sorry Warren, we just won our bet and will be needing those premiums back, and quite a bit more." and he'll say "Ah, shucks, guess I don't crush the market quite so thoroughly this year. Oh well, I still get to keep all of my winnings from investing the float in good years."


It doesn't matter to an insurance company how likely car crashes are -- that just determines what the company charges in premiums. All that matters is that the likelihood is well understood and that the company has enough customers to stay solvent.

Insurance companies essentially work by the Law of Large Numbers: that in a large enough number of trials, the average value should approach the expected value. In real world terms, if the chance of a house burning down in a fire is 1 per year per 1000 homes at an average cost of $200k each to repair (totally bogus numbers), then an insurance company can break even by charging a homeowner $200/year to insure the home against fire.

Over a large enough number of homes, that should be reasonably close to the actual amount they have to pay out. Tack on a profit margin, and you have a business model.

Edit: Fixed numbers a bit. Thank goodness I'm not an actuary.


Insurance makes money on float and usually loses money on insuring something over the long term. I can't remember the exact numbers, but GEICO might payout something like 103% (or 3% MORE than you paid them) over the term of your policy with them.

How do they make money? http://seekingalpha.com/article/419731-buffett-on-insurance-...

Basically they invest your premiums during the time you are paying them and make money off of holding your money. Then the other insurance agencies might lower their costs and end of paying out 104% (or whatever) of what you've paid in. This competition pressures the market to close the gap between what you can make on the float and what you can charge your customer, but there is going to be some gap and that is the profit margin.

If the insurance company can make a high ROI on the float, they can charge less in insurance rates and still make money.


Insurance companies usually lose money on underwriting.

However, GEICO is not a good example, because it is the exception to the rule. GEICO usually makes an underwriting profit -- often a very large underwriting profit.

In fact, all of Berkshire Hathaway's insurance operations make a long-term underwriting profit. Unlike GEICO, the reinsurers do not make a profit every year, because hurricanes and earthquakes are unpredictable. (Whereas car crash statistics change very slowly from year to year.) But averaged out over a long period of time, they make a profit.

This is the secret of Warren Buffett's success as an investor. He is essentially buying stocks on margin, at a negative interest rate.

Data collected from Berkshire Hathaway annual reports:

  2012: $680 million profit on $11,578 million float
  2011: $576 million profit on $11,169 million float
  2010: $1,117 milion profit on $10,272 million float
  2009: $649 million profit on $9,613 million float
  2008: $916 million profit on $8,454 million float
  2007: $1,113 million profit on $7,768 million float
  2006: $1,314 million profit on $7,171 million float
  2005: $1,221 million profit on $6,692 million float
  2004: $970 million profit on $5,960 million float
  Not broken out separately prior to 2004
This profitability streak is truly exceptional. As Warren Buffett pointed out in his 2012 letter, State Farm has made an underwriting loss in 8 of the previous 11 years. The insurance industry as a whole has made an underwriting loss in 37 of the previous 45 years.


I think you overlooked that in GTA we have a > 100-year-storm of destruction

In the game world, insurance companies wouldn't have predicted the level of claims.


I haven't played the game. If the game's premise is that there's a one-of-a-kind rampage going on that's causing all sorts of mayhem that couldn't have been predicted, then I agree that buying shares in an insurance company would be a bad idea.

But if the game's premise is that the mayhem is normal within the world, then insurance would be stupid expensive. But, assuming the market can bear those prices, insurance would be a good business to be in.


It's a game where getting into a fender bender with a cop car often results in hundreds of blown up cars, numerous car-jackings, and several crashed helicopters an hour or two later, but only if your character is involved.


I'm sorry to be so pedantic, but your math doesn't seem quite right. Should it instead be (1/100,000 chance of burning down each year) * ($200,000 cost if it does) = $2 per near expected damages?


Err, yes you're right. I was off there by a couple orders of magnitude :)


To stay in business, casinos need to be a bad deal for customers _as a group_.

Did I say casinos? I meant insurance companies.

Seriously, insurance is a bet on something bad happening. Usually it only makes sense to buy insurance for the equivalent of long-shot "lottery jackpots". Like a catastrophic health problem. Or like the damage you might do to other people and their property in an auto accident --- but probably _not_ the damage to your own car. i.e. Insure for personal liability calamities, but not collision damage if you could pay for it out of savings.


Insurance is accepting a small but certain loss to prevent a large and unlikely loss. Gambling is accepting a small but certain loss in the hopes of getting a large and unlikely gain.

They're related but opposite concepts.


The Casino, not the gambler, counts on a constant stream of money coming in with the occasional large chunk of money going out. Insurance companies operate the same.


Constant stream of money coming in with the occasional large chunk of money going out? Your description applies to almost every business on the planet.


Doesn't mean it isn't accurate. It is inaccurate to say that casinos and insurance are dissimilar in that regard.

If casinos find themselves paying out too often, they change the size of those payouts with respect to how much it costs to play, until they are back in the black. If insurance companies find themselves paying out too much, they raise their premiums. Same basic concept, the only thing that is different is the motivation of the customers.


What you're both describing is socialism, insurance is opt-in socialism, pure and simple.


Socialism is a lot more than a single economic exchange - its a system. Perhaps what they're describing is cooperative or risk-sharing. But its no more 'Socialism' with a big-S than its Monarchy. To quote Billy Crystal - I eat a burrito - I'm not Mexican.


Uh... okay. If you want to call it that, that is fine. Not sure how that is relevant though.


You know what's really socialistic? The systems inside any large company. You need a computer and a cubical? These things will be provided to you, in return for your work. Nothing reasonable is denied as long as your productivity justifies it, comrade!

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need." -- Karl Marx. Not a misquote.


Err, that's capitalism.

Socialism's the one that thinks all men are born equal. Everyone gets the same computer and cubical. Productivity is irrelevant.

You might be muddling Socialism up with Communism (or Marxism).

"Ism's in my opinion are not good."


actually... no. Companies are still pretty capitalistic considering the owners/shareholders get all the major money out of it without putting any "effort" in. Though i guess socialism would be a like an employee-owned company where everyone gets a share of the total profit etc. Or where they decide as a whole what to do with the surplus (get a pool table, or heck even an indoor POOL!)


Marxism is not the only socialist ideology, nor the first. Tying socialism to Marx is a good way of restricting your view.

And since you make the explicit point that you're not misquoting: No, but the quote you give is severely out of context.

Marx very specifically did NOT believe that this would be the case for _socialist_ society, but for a well developed _communist_ society, and that in any case he makes the case that it is really a distraction.

The quote is from Critique of the Gotha Programme, a critique of a draft programme of the United Workers Party of Germany.

The full paragraph reads "In a higher phase of communist society, after the enslaving subordination of the individual to the division of labor, and therewith also the antithesis between mental and physical labor, has vanished; after labor has become not only a means of life but life's prime want; after the productive forces have also increased with the all-around development of the individual, and all the springs of co-operative wealth flow more abundantly -- only then then can the narrow horizon of bourgeois right be crossed in its entirety and society inscribe on its banners: From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs!"

This was part of Marx' criticism of this phrase in the programme:

'3. "The emancipation of labor demands the promotion of the instruments of labor to the common property of society and the co-operative regulation of the total labor, with a fair distribution of the proceeds of labor.'

Marx made the point that while this is desired endgoal in a communist society, the above programme point is largely meaningless in terms of practical policy for a revolutionary party that has communism as its goal, as the distribution of wealth can not reasonably be treated separate from the ownership and control of the means of production. Thus focusing on redistribution is effectively making an own-goal, playing right into the hands of the ruling classes and/or reformists by changing focus away from the necessity of restructuring society and the control of labor.

He goes on after the most famous part of the quote, to say:

'I have dealt more at length with the "undiminished" proceeds of labor, on the one hand, and with "equal right" and "fair distribution", on the other, in order to show what a crime it is to attempt, on the one hand, to force on our Party again, as dogmas, ideas which in a certain period had some meaning but have now become obsolete verbal rubbish, while again perverting, on the other, the realistic outlook, which it cost so much effort to instill into the Party but which has now taken root in it, by means of ideological nonsense about right and other trash so common among the democrats and French socialists.

Quite apart from the analysis so far given, it was in general a mistake to make a fuss about so-called distribution and put the principal stress on it.

Any distribution whatever of the means of consumption is only a consequence of the distribution of the conditions of production themselves. The latter distribution, however, is a feature of the mode of production itself. The capitalist mode of production, for example, rests on the fact that the material conditions of production are in the hands of nonworkers in the form of property in capital and land, while the masses are only owners of the personal condition of production, of labor power. If the elements of production are so distributed, then the present-day distribution of the means of consumption results automatically. If the material conditions of production are the co-operative property of the workers themselves, then there likewise results a distribution of the means of consumption different from the present one. Vulgar socialism (and from it in turn a section of the democrats) has taken over from the bourgeois economists the consideration and treatment of distribution as independent of the mode of production and hence the presentation of socialism as turning principally on distribution. After the real relation has long been made clear, why retrogress again?'

In other words: Marx saw the focus on redistribution as largely _missing the point_. The main issue, according to Marx, is the mode of production: ownership of the means of production and conditions under which people work.

Thus the systems inside any large company, no matter how much you "spread the wealth around" is a sideshow: Unless it alters the decision process, ultimately the distinct capitalist distribution of wealth eventually asserts itself. And just how many capitalist companies do you know where an objective measure of productivity, rather than hierarchy, is used to determine what is available to most employees?

There may be socialist ideologies that might fit your idea - various meritocratic systems, such as Saint Simon's original technocratic meritocracy, for example might be a better fit. But Marxist it isn't.


Insurance is the opposite of gambling. You take a guaranteed loss instead of risking a huge one. Not having insurance is a bet that nothing bad will happen.

If you can afford to replace everything you own out of savings, good for you, but most people can't.


Beyond that, given the perverse 'market' for health care in the US, even if you can (theoretically) afford to self-insure, the pricing mechanisms and negotiating power of insurance companies practically ensures that they can offer you premiums for less than your out-of-pocket cost for even fairly pedestrian services.


There are (or at least were when I sold insurance) products that costed very little (compared to an actual plan) that provided you with the negotiated price the insurance company would pay if something happens. If you can afford to self-insure, the best bet would be to buy one of these products and store the rest in the bank.

No clue if those things exist anymore with everything going on in the world of health insurance, though.


But you really can't afford to self-insure, even if you're young and healthy. There's always the small but real chance of getting a catastrophic illness and running up a million dollar bill.

Therefore, you really need to buy at least catastrophic coverage. And that's real insurance, not self-insurance.


Health insurance is complicated because for most people, it's so much more than just insurance. It's prepaying $300 a month so you don't have to pay $200 to visit the doctor once per year. No, I don't know why people do that. You're right that paying $100 a month for "please reattach my severed limbs" insurance is more affordable. Terminology be damned, that's possibly what people mean by "self-insured". They pay day to day expenses out of pocket.


Fortunately, the catastrophic insurance can be pretty cheap, if you choose a high excess.


You don't completely self-insure, instead you get a high deductible play ($5,000 - $15,000) - also called major medical or catastrophic insurance.

That way you insure the vast majority of things, but you are covered for the really insane stuff, plus you get the benefit of the negotiated rates.


> If you can afford to replace everything you own out of savings, good for you, but most people can't.

Exactly this. The advice I was always given is that if you can afford to replace x (whatever x is) if something bad were to happen, then it's better not to bother. But if you can't, and x is necessary for your life, then you need to accept insurance as a necessary evil.


> If you can afford to replace everything you own out of savings, good for you, but most people can't.

Not that it's relevant, but I can't. Anyway, I didn't say anyone should plan to replace everything from savings. My point is, whatever you _can_ replace from savings, don't waste money to insure _that_.


Please don't compare insurance companies to casinos. In casinos the odds are completely computable and known beforehand to everyone. Not so with insurance which deals with real life.


I'm naive on this topic, but wouldn't a high number of claims be either neutral or positive if said level is anticipated or consistent (as in the crime-ridden metropolis of LS or LC)? Ultimately, all policyholders will pay through higher premiums, and it'd be easier to make a profit (in absolute amounts) on high premiums since bumping up $1000 to $1030 looks a lot less onerous than $300 vs $330. As I said though, I'm naive on this, but I'm guessing only unanticipated high levels of claims would hit insurers hard.


Assuming efficient market, insurance industry will do best in more volatile conditions. The reason is insurance is essentially risk trading and they have the advantage of having access to more information and therefore can come up with more optimal risk trading strategies.


What scenario would be good for a car insurance company? If cars never have any problems, then no one would buy car insurance (perhaps other than the government-mandated minimum). So is there some happy medium where the insurance industry would thrive?


The ideal scenario is that the public hugely overestimate the risk of car accidents.


So a few high profile incidents like the ones caused by the protagonist are exactly what you need.


That's what reinsurance is for :)


The BAWSAQ is by far the most interesting market. The BAWSAQ is an online market driven by the buy and sell orders of all 15M+ players.

Early on, before people started to realize how the market worked, I did some pump-and-dump schemes and made >$400M. That's a lot of money, even in GTA. Now that I have that much money I can drive stocks up or down and milk the market for all I want. GTA isn't just for blue color crime anymore.

I know that a few other players did equally well, I suspect they are doing similar market manipulating schemes.


"The BAWSAQ is by far the most interesting market. The BAWSAQ is an online market driven by the buy and sell orders of all 15M+ players."

I'm surprised no Scots have popped up to point out how hilarious that market's name is ;)


The game is developed in Scotland so it must be intentional.


Oh definitely - Rockstar know what they're doing :)


I was thinking Southern American English, but I suspect we're on the same page.


"bawbag" is a Scottish brand of designer shorts - it is also a term of endearment between strangers in Scotland, so when meeting someone new it is traditional to shout "Hey ye big bawbag!".


Care to enlighten the non-Scots?


Put on your best Scottish accent and say the name out loud. Think the Sean Connery character on SNL Celebrity Jeopardy.


Ball Sack. It sounds like "ball sack"


BAWSAQ = “ball-sack”.


What are "pump and dump" schemes?

EDIT: Oh wow, Wikipedia has everything: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump


With the BAWSAQ it's even easier than traditional pump-and-dump. If you pour a large enough pile of dough into a stock, it goes up a ton after a delay (1-2h). So, you can purchase all you want before the price skyrockets. Other players predictably pile on because they see the stock going up; which makes the stock go higher and entices even more players to invest in the stock.

You then sell all your stock for a tidy profit and watch the price, and the hopes of the other investors, collapse.


One game that, like GTA, is not focused around making tons of virtual money, but has some neat emergent lessons, is Escape Velocity Nova: http://www.ambrosiasw.com/games/evn/

You have a small starfreighter, and one way to make money is by buying goods where they're inexpensive, loading them up in your cargo hold, and flying somewhere where they're expensive to sell them.

Eventually you realize that it makes sense to pay other freighters to help you carry stuff so you can make more per trip---but since they charge a daily rate, at what point is it worth it? And does it make sense to risk it all ('cause, you know, space pirates) putting your life savings into a load of expensive opals which will make you a ton once you arrive, or should you play it safe and stick to inexpensive but barely-profitable foodstuffs? If you've got an appetite for risk, you can carry drugs or illegal biological weapons, both of which will make you a ton of money, but will cause law enforcement to attack if you're scanned.

It's a sort of mini-version of EVE this way, in that it's the only game I've made a spreadsheet for.


Isn't Ambrosia the company behind the amazing turn-based RPG series, Exile; with Exile I, II, III, and Blades of Exile being some of the most critically-acclaimed independent RPGs of all-time?

edit: nope, that would be SpiderWeb, who has apparently renamed the series to "Avernum" (???): http://www.spidweb.com/


Ah man that Exile series was awesome. Awful, but awesome.


This sounds a lot like the old BBS game TradeWars. Thanks for sharing it!


And of course, the grand-daddy of this genre: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TradeWars_2002


That is not the grand-daddy of the genre.

This is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_(video_game)


sounds a lot like the trading in Elite.


Pro tip: wait to do the assassination missions until after you've completed the main storyline. That way you can invest the players' ~25 million in the stocks you are directly affecting and make bank.

You supposedly can also game the market by investing in competing companies (like Cluckin Bell and Burger Shot) and just destroying a bunch of the opposite companies. Then after the drop, reinvest in the opposite as they equalize and come back (or just keep going back and forth). Haven't tried this yet, though.


World of Warcraft's Auction House is similarly interesting. It can get really complicated trying to corner the market on different goods, although it's less integral to gameplay over all. It's more like an embedded minigame at times.

One thing I learned in that game is that while one can make a lot of money being the middle man, the real value is from labor (as far as WoW is concerned) -- but grinding for materials can also be monotonous and not so profitable if you don't go about it in the right way.

So, there are lots of addons (Auctioneer being the most popular) to help one track data throughout the market.


I think there are far better games for market PvP such as EVE Online, Guild Wars, or Kingdom of Loathing. Making profit on the WoW AH was very formulaic (refining raw materials into the largest variety of items possible to maximize turnover - see JC shuffle), the best route was to find botters who would sell raw materials to you below market rates, and the huge number of shards made markets much less interesting.

Every action also required far too much clicking, which meant many people just used tools like autohotkey (cheats, although nobody ever got banned for them), and having to relist products constantly to beat minor undercuts was a terrible experience.

WoW AH is to virtual markets what hitting a pinata is to hitting something that fights back - it's simplicity makes it unrewarding.


market PvP

I think you just invented a new term that has lots of appeal to me. :) Just saying it: "I want to do some market PvP" makes me ... want?

EVE Online probably comes closet to this ... but it reminds me of a prolonged Dune story; doesn't bother me, though. :)


I remember a simple tactic that I used in the WoW AH to make some money:

1) Buy bulk of item X.

2) Divide item X into single units and post on AH with a markup in the price.

People would then buy it because they would need only 1 or 2 of X instead of 10. It only worked for some items and under the right market conditions, but when it worked, it was a simple way to make money. From this I learned some important lessons:

1) Convenience == profit. This is the basis of a lot of business and industry. Why do people use and pay netflix instead of downloading shows? Convenience. Why do supermarkets exist? Convenience. And this is just a specific form of a more general rule, time == money. If you can save people time (convenience) then they will pay you for that service.

2) It made me appreciate and respect more how difficult this must be in the real world. In the WoW AH, I don't have to worry about things decaying or transportation or other things. But the supermarket down the street with shelves full of food? How do they know how much to buy in bulk and sell in units before the food expires? What do they do if they're wrong? I realized that just managing the inventory at a store could be an interesting computer problem. Models, simulations, even some AI could be used to try to figure out the best decisions. And companies already do this and those that do it well have a massive competitive advantage.


Former buyer for Whole Foods Market in the dairy department; arguably the most volatile of all -- Almost any decision I made to order was based on data of last week / last year / seasonal data, etc --

It got pretty instinctual after a while -- Holiday? Better get the baking materials ready! Martha Stewart mention something on her show? Better have 10x available the next day! -- Those scanner guns you see clerks wandering around with from time to time have all that data (well, not the Martha stuff) right there at our finger tips. It even alerted you if something was well out of the norm.


I made far more gold in WoW as a middleman than I ever did with "labor" alone.


Yes, grinding, dis enchanting, etc was boring and it seemed like I never made much money. Towards the end of Cata it seemed like I made more money selling materials I collected in the AH while grinding up to 80.

I think connections and information also helped out a lot


Yes! I loved doing this. Faction arbitrage, cornering markets, playing the weekend tides. At one point I even had a bot set up to snipe epic items that people were transferring on the neutral AH.


that you know, are there any other games with an auction house/ any other sort of market(that is available in the browser) with the same depth of WoW. When I used to play it, the last few months I remember I spent more time in the armoury than in the game...


Eve Online might qualify.


I had a similar fascination with the stock trading component of the Railroad Tycoon games. I am almost ashamed of the number of times I tried to make myself a virtual fortune by destroying my own virtual railroad company.


It was almost always more effective to gobble up debt and then invest the money in productive capability if you were looking to earn a real fortune though.

The balancing act was to not overdo it - depressions was not fun if you were overly indebted.

Shorting the stcok of competitors were always good fun though, but mostly since they were so horribly bad at building which resulted in that it was sometimes a good idea to shorten stock.

Sigh - how I wish for a spiritual successor to Railroad Tycoon 3.


Emergent gameplay is always fun. For all of the huge space battles between armadas and great train robberies of EVE Online, that MMO supports a flourishing economy of many different roles that one wouldn't expect:

http://massively.joystiq.com/2008/07/14/eve-evolved-freeform...

Makes sense that in a open sandbox crime simulator, players would try to make a killing in the stock market. Too bad you can do insider trading to get involved in white collar crime.


What this article fails to mention is the most interesting aspect of the GTAV stock market.

You can buy stock in a company and then accept missions to assassinate a competitors keep employees!


Actually it does mention that.

FTA Throughout the game, you're given opportunities to manipulate the markets. Some missions, for example, require that you kill the CEO of a company. You could, theoretically, buy the stock of that company's competitors and profit when they rise after the killing. And since there's no SEC policing stock trading in Los Santos, you're not going to be busted for insider trading.


"theoretically"

The guy giving you the assassination missions more or less tips you off each time what stock to buy.


One thing you can do that I enjoy is invest in the AuguryInsurance (AUG) then start destroying a ton of cars. It actually causes their stock price to rise.


A few issues with this:

1. My understanding is that this has been widely theorized and fairly well researched, and most people have concluded that there's no relationship.

2. I don't understand why a rampage would cause the stock price of an insurance company to go up. You could argue that in the long-run, living in a town with regular rampages might encourage people to buy more insurance, but one would think that in the short term all of those payouts would be really bad for the insurance company.


Not that I've played the game, just skimming comments but here's a possibility:

although the game focuses on a single character and thus makes the actions of that character carry supreme importance, in the larger context the actual effect isn't that great compared to the average.

However, the media effect in the context of the game would probably be pretty fantastic, in effect creating free marketing for the company.

At least, that's how news media plays into things like that where I am living.


That's awesome.

I spent quite a while trying to figure out how to short the stock of the drug company whose jurors I was sent to kill, but gave up and simply bought the rival's stock. (I think I made more money off that one transaction than any actual mission aside from the final one.)


Incidentally, there are already a multitude of subreddits which have formed for the express purpose of manipulating the public markets. This is a really interesting interaction, though it's somewhat skewed by the fact that a player can simply revert to a saved game if the stock they've purchased tanks.


Fairly certain he's basing this article on the top /r/gaming post the other day about trading. He only mentions hours passing between trades.

Also, I know writers at NY Mag and others that have literally said to me "I don't know why you go on Reddit, I get paid to find stories on there and I still hate using it." HuffPo and everyone else literally just sits on the site waiting to take content.


Do you have a list of a few of the larger ones? I usually glance through /r/grandtheftautov every day or so but this is the first i've heard of subreddits organized for manipulation.


Try /r/gtavstocks


I think the big one is /r/gtamarket


To say it's "skewed" is an understatement. Any market in which a group can collectively take a dive, then revert their losses while the winners commit (save) the upside is destined to be exploited.


The author needs to login to PSN or XBOX live, and create a Rockstar Social account. That unlocks the BAWSAQ market which is based on other players trades.


I don't have a Rockstar Social account and I've managed to use the BAWSAQ market, it opens during some of Franklin's assassination side missions given by Lester. It's not under maintenance throughout the entire game.


Hmm, I'd have thought it would be tied into GTAV online multiplayer, which doesn't open until tomorrow. In any event, market PvP might provide an interesting counterpoint to actual PvP in the multiplayer environment.

(My fiancee's gaming clan is planning to be in GTAV in a big way, starting tomorrow.)


If anyone here wants to play a game about building a business, that includes a better stock market simulation, Capitalism Plus [1] and its sequel [2] are really good.

[1] http://www.gog.com/game/capitalism_plus

[2] http://www.gog.com/game/capitalism_2


They've also released a new standalone expansion for Capitalism 2 called Capitalism Lab [1].

It's a combination of updates to make the game work on modern systems/resolutions and a bevy of new features/usability improvements.

[1] http://www.capitalismlab.com/index.html


Calls to mind "Wall Street Kid," a stock-trading game released on the good ol' NES back in 1990.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Kid

The premise of the game was fairly ludicrous: if you could earn a decent return on a $500,000 loan, you stood to inherit a $600 billion (!) family fortune. But the stock market in the game, while randomized, was pretty innovative for its time. (It's been awhile since I've played it, of course, but I vaguely remember that there was some sort of internally consistent logic behind the stock pricing movements that seemed to be randomly seeded at the start of each game).

As far as I can tell, the entire game revolved around getting rich off of stocks, wining and dining an increasingly high-maintenance trophy wife, and making a series of very conspicuous consumptions (a yacht, a penthouse, and even a castle). But the mini game in GTA V seems very similar.


Oh I hated this game! I was so bad at it and made no profit in the week I had it rented.

Turns out I did about as well in the real stock market. gg.

The game was really fun though


I sucked at it for the longest time, but every now and then, I'd have an incredible run of luck. A 10-year-old Gordon Gekko, I crushed it on Wall Street, bought the boat, the houses, and even the family castle (why I bought the castle from my own family trust, I'm not really sure; in retrospect, I assume it was some sort of complex inheritance-tax-evasion mechanism).

Lots of fun! Unfortunately, I grew up to be considerably less successful and, at least for now, castleless. :)


Ha, one thing I love about GTA is the witty puns they have in there. Krapea, Life Invader, nice.


Interesting. I could see this as the intellectual genesis of an entirely different game. Imagine tying the virtual market to Bitcoins!

One comment on being able to short... Based on how the game is described (I may be the only one the planet not to be an active player) it should be possible to short a stock. Every time you get new money, split the purchases evenly between all stock. (Can do a weighted average if you want) Then when you have information (like you're going to kill the CEO) then you have shares to sell on the bad information. It's not a concentrated bet, but you still can effectively short it.


That's not a short, though. You don't profit on the difference between prices, you only get the chance to buy again at a lower price, but not sure if the stock will go back up.


Let's oversimplify for the sake of showing the calculation...

There are 4 stocks in the world, A, B, and C, and D, all trading at $25. I invest $100, buying $25 in each.

Now lets say that I know for sure that stock D will go down because I'm going to whack the CEO. So I sell my $25 of D, and put it in A, B and C (A stake of $33.33 in each - let's assume fractional shares are ok.) If Stock D goes to 0, while the others all double. I have a net gain of $100 - $75 from the stocks I already held, but $25 from the new investment, and I've avoided $25 as well.

Let's say you lived in a world where shorting was ok. If instead you invested $25 in A, B and C, and shorted $25 on D, you would gain $75 in A, B and C, and $25 on your short of D. In essence it's the same $100 profit.

Now this only works if A, B and C are also going up.

Let's say that D does move on the event, but A, B and C don't. If you do buy back D after the event, you ultimately are in the same position in both cases. In the shorting case, you have $100 in securities ($75 original, plus $25 of D bought near 0) and in the "sell now buy later" you sell back $25 of A, B and C to buy at the bottom.

Net - you create the effect of shorting.

This falls apart if you want a very concentrated bet, but it's a way that long-only professional money managers who compete against indexes find a way to effectively short.


All of your profit in this scenario comes from the market going up, not D going down. That's not a short (or synthetic short) position.


The math still holds if you assume buying back after the drop.

Think of it this way - in both cases you're selling today, and buying later. The only difference is the "hold the whole market first" strategy requires more capital. (There are market technical differences too, but for short time periods these aren't as significant)


The only difference is the "hold the whole market first" strategy requires more capital.

That's not the only difference. It's not even the biggest difference. The major difference is that in your scenario you have a big unhedged exposure to the market (your p&l depends on the performance of A,B,C) and in the case of just shorting D you don't (doesn't matter what happens to A,B,C). That's a pretty big difference.


Fair enough, though perhaps we're going too deep down the rabbit hole for a video game. :-)


yeah that's not a short at all :/ that's just a long position in all the other stocks and hoping that somehow those stocks have a short position in stock D


Bill Cosby calls Grand Theft Auto Entrance Exam for Prison http://nativenotes.net/bill-cosby-calls-grand-theft-auto-ent...


An out of touch older individual slagging on video games? How totally unique and unsurprising. /s


This is an entirely separate discussion, one not particularly relevant to this thread.




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