I predicted 5% of uninsured who don't want insurance will pay the fine. About 15% don't have health insurance. If it turns out 1% of the population pays an IRS fine, that's even more people than I predicted.
1. I said 90% of uninsured. That would be 90% of 15% of the population. Clearly I'm not saying 90% of the population will get fined. But my estimate will be way off, see #2.
2. Getting fined (what I said) and paying a fine (what you said) are totally different. Only 41% of people file tax returns. You can bet that percentage is much higher among the uninsured. So right off the bat, over half the uninsured should be fined. Those people were in my 90% estimate but there's really no way to fine them. I just did some searching and it apprears you are "exempt from the requirement to obtain minimum essential coverage...if you are not a U.S. citizen, a U.S. national or an alien lawfully present in the U.S." http://www.irs.gov/uac/Questions-and-Answers-on-the-Individu...
This is also interesting:
"44% of (people who file taxes) were unaware that they would face a penalty for not purchasing coverage."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_insurance_coverage_in_th...