Most people don't buy a house for investment, they buy it because they have reached a point in their lives where they want to settle down and live someplace with their kids for 10+ years.
In that world, I think you can simplify things quite a bit. First, buying a house is more of a hedge against inflation than an investment. The market goes up? You've got more equity to move somewhere else. The market goes down? Well, you lose money, but everything else is cheaper too.
For the average person, I think the real lesson here is to make sure you can afford the house, put 20% down and it is within x2-3 your annual income. If you live in low-supply/high-demand markets like Seattle, SF, then you might end up paying more, and it is just a trade off you need to make.
In that world, I think you can simplify things quite a bit. First, buying a house is more of a hedge against inflation than an investment. The market goes up? You've got more equity to move somewhere else. The market goes down? Well, you lose money, but everything else is cheaper too.
For the average person, I think the real lesson here is to make sure you can afford the house, put 20% down and it is within x2-3 your annual income. If you live in low-supply/high-demand markets like Seattle, SF, then you might end up paying more, and it is just a trade off you need to make.