It's worth noting that patrick was among the few active bloggers that noticed the housing bubble early. Ben at the thehousingbubbleblog, calculatedrisk were two others. Folks that were paying attention and shorted the banks made some money.
But of course: this time is different, broken clock, and <insert your financial cliché here>, etc etc.
Also you can find people saying everything and its contrary.
Retrospectively you'll always find people who "predicted" any up or down in the market. That doesn't mean they will get it right the next time. Or it would be too easy, just find the guy who got it right once and you can predict the future!
CalculatedRisk changed his opinion as the facts changed (he is data-driven, and one of the best blogs out there).
Patrick.net has essentially been a perma-bear on real estate. While that view was correct at one point in time, he never changed his view significantly when the facts completely changed.
> CalculatedRisk changed his opinion as the facts changed (he is data-driven, and one of the best blogs out there).
I should have emphasized this point myself. Also, the CR comment board used to be of HN quality, but for economics and housing. (Lately, not so much.) If you follow one econ blog, I'd heartily recommend CR: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
I will note though for the topic at hand: CR has commented that there is little correlation between interest rates and house prices[1]. I believe he has neglected that most of the data from which that statement is derived had interest rates (and borrowing standards) out of range compared to where we are now.
But of course: this time is different, broken clock, and <insert your financial cliché here>, etc etc.