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You can't ever really tell if a server has been physically compromised. IDS/HSM/bla are only a chance at working out if it's happened. A perfect attacker could obtain access to any system and never trigger any alarms if they understand the triggers for any alarms that are in place.

Much the same as you can never tell if someone has broken into your apartment: you could tell a novice has broken in by looking for papers that are out of place or footprints/fingerprints. An expert burglar would make sure not to leave anything obvious like that. You could tell if an expert has broken in using something like IDS: set up a special trap or webcam that will detect it.

However, a perfect burglar would replace the webcam tapes, find and disable/ren-enable any traps, etc. Since most web hosting environments are so standard, it's actually a MUCH easier prospect to be a perfect hacker than a perfect burglar too.

Also, no amount of perfect security skills can keep you absolutely safe. An unknown exploit in your OS is simply out of scope for even the greatest security expert, and no amount of best practices can help if your OS/CPU/RAM/Network Card will give the intruder full access through some unknown flaw outside of your control.




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