"Guessing what's going to kill me" might be an exercise for finding new markets. He cites netbooks as a potential problem, since many of them can't run even with his already very low minimum requirements. But that strikes me as a New Market opportunity! Appealing games tailored to netbooks, but without some disadvantages of Flash games could be a good seller. (For one thing, being able to run them while on the plane might be a good selling point.)

The problem is, for these single-developer shops, the work has to be fun. If you have to start making games you don't like, you might as well go get a job working for someone else.

It's funny, the way to run a successful business is to be insanely good at giving customers what they want. OTOH that means you're working for them now.

A lot of indie game developers are more like artists. They want to make what they themselves like. Luckily, a few of them can find a middle ground doing what they like (mostly), and satisfying customers.

I don't see how tailoring product to netbooks is anti-fun. You can see it as a challenge. You could find a way to express the same information, but in a graphically minimal way.

I'm not saying it can't be fun. It's just not my cup of tea. Therefore I don't want to do it. Therefore I'll suck at a business model that depends on doing it.