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They have been predicting automation will destroy jobs for centuries, and it hasn't happened. Looking at the unemployment statistics for the past century, the trend line seems very weak: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Unemployment_1890-2011....

The history of technological innovation is that new job categories are created faster than old ones are lost. There are many job categories which will be opened up as a result of automation. We will see a shift to creative / performance jobs instead of mechanistic / routine jobs. Demand will be artificially created for the products of these new categories, just like it has been for more than a century (without artificially created demand the economy would collapse, as we consume a multiple of what we need). The demand will be focused on "unique", on products tailored by a human for an audience of one, but produced using mass-production technologies. The more renowned the bespoke designer, the higher the price tag will be.

Still, if the singularity does happen and we end up in a true post-production society, I imagine it will look like the Culture (Iain M. Banks). Or at least, I hope it will.




> They have been predicting automation will destroy jobs for centuries, and it hasn't happened.

We have replaced jobs by consuming more. This concept growth is infinite is not practical(Or mathematically possible), and it's probably not linear either, when it hits and growth stops being able to replace lost jobs it could be sudden.

Bespoke is interesting, but I'll probably only visit 1000 different houses in my lifetime etc 'Bespoke-esque' products will be able to be mass produced and appear unique, currently they are limited by space time, small markets overseas trips will have little meaning to goods in the future.

Once 3D printers/scanners work well I can copy anything that an artist creates why would I buy it off them personally, especially since I'll probably be unemployed myself.

Sure I'll go to a fancy humans serve me restaurant every now and again, probably when I'm young and hip, but normally I'll do what everyone else will do, get a excellent, cheap hassle free meal made to order served by automatons.

Building and driving are dangerous jobs, it won't take many lawsuits before they get shut down for humans.

More of a dystopian fan myself.


And yet slowly it has happened. It's the underlying reason why we haven't yet recovered from the financial bubble.

A shift to creative/performance means talent an even more scarse resource than people with high education.

Less jobs are created than lost. It is a real problem and can't just be brushed of this time.


Take a look at state government employees most of whom are middle class. A major portion of this labor force is involved in managing data. Rough guess ~30000 * 50 states=1500000. Pretty sure its a much bigger number.

Facebook can manage the data of a billion people with 5000 employees.


We already now have a lot of jobs that simply aren't necessary. I mean look at all the bureaucracy… Haven't you ever looked at some buraeucrats' job and just thought "Wow, I could replace that guy with 200 lines of perl."?^^


There is much hidden unemployment. Prisoners, guards, government white collar workers. All those people and the like should count towards unemployment because they do no benefit to the economy and are occupied with government sponsored busy work.




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