The 'programmer laffer curve' may exist, but not for the reasons stated. A good programmer doesn't every 'offer all their experience' and runout. They got that experience somehow; this job is giving them more. They learn and grow, and don't stop having something to offer.
I'm leaning toward the 'bored and want an excuse to leave' school of thought on this one.
I think the theme of the article was less that they have nothing more to offer but that the things they offer are rarely followed up on. They become disillusioned with the ability to get things done. That it's relatively difficult to get promoted into a position of power as much as it is to go to another company and try to get things done there - at the very least you get another throw of the dice with people who might be more inclined to listen to reason.
I'm leaning toward the 'bored and want an excuse to leave' school of thought on this one.