Well in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5757226 a lost of posters were arguing how brain work could never be replaced, nor could technology be used to lower the need for highly-educated creative professionals.
Professor/teacher is pretty much the quintessential example of highly-educated brain work, isn't it ?
> He estimated the school would have to hire one full-time teacher for every 100 online students as opposed to one full-time teacher for every 10 or 20 students who study on campus.
Also from the article:
> Looking back on it now, this experience had far more in common with the Middle Ages than the world of 2013. What's the difference between watching a lecture in an auditorium and watching HD-quality video in one's living room or beach cabana?
This is the situation that was hit at the end of the Roman Empire, the beginning of what would later turn into the dark-ages. Plenty of highly educated people, ever more and more, and ... no reason to have them. No reason to have all that many farmers either. This was a result of using iron-age technology to it's fullest potential. You should see some Roman surgery tools, they're amazing. They're much more specialized than "our" surgery tools. Surgeons today have 10 kinds of knives, syringes, stitches, compresses, all very general tools. Roman surgeons had hundres of tools, each a weird metal thingamabob specifically built for one singular procedure. We use special tools today in some cases, but mostly very general tools like 5 sizes of the same gripper, tweezers, ... that sort of thing.
They used iron to it's fullest potential, and we use computers, but the end result is the same : massive population numbers, yet the economy only justifies ~1% to maybe 5% of the population, with most of even that employed in either the government itself or the military. At some point, even slaves become a losing proposition (better to give those precious jobs to family, and keep in mind that Roman slaves had rights, and were more akin to someone holding a job. I'm not saying slaves in the Roman empire had rights comparable to Americans (they lacked voting, for example), but they certainly couldn't be killed randomly or on a whim). No goods shortages, quite the opposite : almost universal abundance (not for expensive goods, but things like food, clothing, furniture, cutlery, apartments, ... no shortages). Not that anyone was happy with just having what everyone else had, no matter how comfortable it actually was (it evolved - for the better, for almost a century). Unemployment numbers hit ridiculously high proportions and never went back down (like in the poor centers of Euro cities now, 80-90% unemployment in areas the size of towns), and ever more of the famed Roman armies were dedicated purely to keeping order in cities. Enemies, ideological ones and physical ones, which had no hope whatsoever of surviving a single confrontation with a single centuria (the unit a centurion commanded) became able to do large amounts of damage due to help from dissatisfied locals, and the situation just systematically kept getting worse.
So realistically this is just another indication that the middle ages will come back. Expect atheism, or realism in general, to lose a lot of it's appeal, because it's only message to 99% of the population will be what it was just before the dark ages :
The only useful thing you could realistically do for others is to die, right now.
I re-read it, to see if the metaphor has been stretched a little too far. Nope. You seem to have drawn your Historical lessons correctly, and kept the narrative to the point (Chilling read though!). However, begs a few questions:
1. Are we doomed, as a species with sentience and recall, to repeat the same historical mistakes over and over again?
2. This is the only "flaw" that I could find, really: While organised religion has definitely been a stranglehold over humans during the European dark ages, right now, in many parts of the World, it is not Atheism, but fundamentalism that is more and more prevalent (N.B: Lest people be mistaken, I am not talking about Islam only, or singling it out here). So, that one fell slightly off the mark for me.
3. We are also moving towards a post-peak, energy-scarce, capital-scarce, World scenario, so perhaps, these trends might themselves reverse, or die-out before reaching the kind of critical mass it reached during the Roman collapse?
But, in general, yours' is a very lateral observation, radically different from the "celebrate all things technology" article linked. Enjoyed reading it, although its suggested implications left a very bad after taste in the mouth.
Professor/teacher is pretty much the quintessential example of highly-educated brain work, isn't it ?
> He estimated the school would have to hire one full-time teacher for every 100 online students as opposed to one full-time teacher for every 10 or 20 students who study on campus.
Also from the article:
> Looking back on it now, this experience had far more in common with the Middle Ages than the world of 2013. What's the difference between watching a lecture in an auditorium and watching HD-quality video in one's living room or beach cabana?
This is the situation that was hit at the end of the Roman Empire, the beginning of what would later turn into the dark-ages. Plenty of highly educated people, ever more and more, and ... no reason to have them. No reason to have all that many farmers either. This was a result of using iron-age technology to it's fullest potential. You should see some Roman surgery tools, they're amazing. They're much more specialized than "our" surgery tools. Surgeons today have 10 kinds of knives, syringes, stitches, compresses, all very general tools. Roman surgeons had hundres of tools, each a weird metal thingamabob specifically built for one singular procedure. We use special tools today in some cases, but mostly very general tools like 5 sizes of the same gripper, tweezers, ... that sort of thing.
They used iron to it's fullest potential, and we use computers, but the end result is the same : massive population numbers, yet the economy only justifies ~1% to maybe 5% of the population, with most of even that employed in either the government itself or the military. At some point, even slaves become a losing proposition (better to give those precious jobs to family, and keep in mind that Roman slaves had rights, and were more akin to someone holding a job. I'm not saying slaves in the Roman empire had rights comparable to Americans (they lacked voting, for example), but they certainly couldn't be killed randomly or on a whim). No goods shortages, quite the opposite : almost universal abundance (not for expensive goods, but things like food, clothing, furniture, cutlery, apartments, ... no shortages). Not that anyone was happy with just having what everyone else had, no matter how comfortable it actually was (it evolved - for the better, for almost a century). Unemployment numbers hit ridiculously high proportions and never went back down (like in the poor centers of Euro cities now, 80-90% unemployment in areas the size of towns), and ever more of the famed Roman armies were dedicated purely to keeping order in cities. Enemies, ideological ones and physical ones, which had no hope whatsoever of surviving a single confrontation with a single centuria (the unit a centurion commanded) became able to do large amounts of damage due to help from dissatisfied locals, and the situation just systematically kept getting worse.
So realistically this is just another indication that the middle ages will come back. Expect atheism, or realism in general, to lose a lot of it's appeal, because it's only message to 99% of the population will be what it was just before the dark ages :
The only useful thing you could realistically do for others is to die, right now.