I'm sure they'd like to do this, and it'd be interesting to see. I still think they'd hit an ecosystem problem even if they can run Android apps though, namely that Google won't give them their apps in Tizen's store. They'd be able to sideload them presumably, and there's plenty of Google Apps packages around the internet, but most consumers wouldn't. Google are killing it software wise on Android and iOS, and it's increasingly looking like an OS without first class Google, not Android, support, is going to suffer.
I doubt Samsung could side-load Google apps from a legal perspective. From what I understand, YouTube et al isn't free. You have to be a member of Google's Android license or something; and that's on the condition that the OEMs conform to various compatibility and UI standards within Android. Sorry for the lack of precision there, I forget the exact details of te agreements OEMs have with Android. But the crux of the matter is if Samsung switch to Tizen, Google could easily block their access to Google's Android apps.
As to whether consumers would ever make the switch to Tizen: I'd imagine some might without realising it - not everyone is tech-savvy about these things. But I wouldn't like to comment on the masses. I've tried to predict popular trends before and have been wrong and given how fickle the smartphone market is, I really wouldn't like to make any future predictions just yet.
My point was just that Samsung are, at best, attempting to supplement their Android market, or at worst, trying to replace Android entirely. And that they've already reached the point where they're ready to put their competing OS to market.
Sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant solely from a technical perspective, my anecdote being that I use Android on my HP Touchpad and had no problem finding Google Apps to install, and they work great. Legally though, I think you're right that Samsung couldn't provide them, so they wouldn't be available to the average consumer.
I do agree with you though that we can't really predict future trends, and I guess Samsung are really uniquely positioned as producers of mass market big selling Android products to know what works in Android and what doesn't.
