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That is the thing though. The senators and interest groups who want this passed understand how to work around their opponents. I'd predict there will be some sort of major hacking scare and this bill will piggyback on that and pass while everyone is scared and willing to forego their rights.



Yeah, they'll just chop it into pieces and attach them to "must pass" legislation. These guys know what they're doing.


I will predict that this does not happen within the next 5 years, 85% confidence.


Questionable confidence ratings aside, what you're betting against is a very narrow example of the many things that could happen that would push this through. It died once and is back; it got farther this time, and whether it's because of a hacking scare, because even fewer people are paying attention, or for any of myriad other reasons, it will eventually go through.


It's the price I'd put on it if Intrade were still around.




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