I understand the hypothesis. I am even aware of acausal game-theoretic arguments that people at our stage of technological development may be disproportionately likely to be simulated.

I didn't mean to say that this isn't an interesting line of inquiry, just that I don't think we can possibly consider the result conclusive either way. I think it's reasonable to re-weight one's beliefs to an extent based on the outcome, but not so far as to adopt one possibility as "a belief" and discard the other.