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This is where you are precisely wrong. A VC wants to cash out within 3 years.

I think we may have different definitions of "short term". When I say short term I mean that you are in the process of proving a concept as viable and at the point that pivots are not very costly. If you've reach 1% penetration in a large market then you are past this point.

1% is an excellent number in this context.

I would definitely agree that it is a good target to hit. I'm just saying that it should not be your golden standard. There is a difference between saying "this is how we plan on securing a foothold in the market", and saying "If we can get only 1% of the market then we will be successful."

The comical term for this is Scientific Wild-Ass Guess

I completely agree. Thats why i actually disagree with stating a target marketshare in a pitch. Personally I think that stating total market size, an underserved aspect of that market/competitive advantage and how you plan to try and break into that market should be enough. I don't think making wild guesses at market share is really worth while at all.



I don't think making wild guesses

The problem is that the Scenarios section in any business plan is typically full of this kind of bullshit.

In business schools they teach the MBAs to layer it on by the ton.

The 1% thing I find frankly the least offensive.


If the 1% is the least offensive, I'd hate to see the rest of it. I guess I'm glad that I'm on the technical side of things :P




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