The fact is that mainframe (emulated at least) COBOL still makes most of the world go around. There are billions of loc in play and maintained. It's out there, cutting your paycheck, processing your loan, or billing your premium.
There are some who claim we're approaching a talent shortage due to the sector's inherent underpaying and uncoolness, while others who poo-poo such shortage on the grounds there are plenty of offshore shops trained and lined up to take on the business for less than the old, local talent. The only thing I could contribute there is there are some sectors, banks for example, who cannot outsource because of privacy/financial regs, so they are stuck with internal hires.
The true talent problem I see is maybe 20% solved by offshore talent. I say that because with most of these monster systems, it seems the talent comes in understanding the system yes, but more importantly the business that the system is designed for (around...)
There are offshore people on mainframes in the banking industry, but the problem faced is more in explaining why or how to do something business-wise. Once some of the older ranks , and thus their experience/knowledge, retire there will be less people who understand why the system does what it does, with hoards of offshore who just pump code leading to a crippling process to which I imagine will hinder any non-trivial change.
From the people I know working in banking, outsourcing is in fact quite common. They just have very tight access controls and truckloads of legal contracts, and some work has to be done on-site.
The bankers I know work on giant clusters of much more modern things. I can't imagine the banks aren't moving to something more like that for processing nightlies.
There are some who claim we're approaching a talent shortage due to the sector's inherent underpaying and uncoolness, while others who poo-poo such shortage on the grounds there are plenty of offshore shops trained and lined up to take on the business for less than the old, local talent. The only thing I could contribute there is there are some sectors, banks for example, who cannot outsource because of privacy/financial regs, so they are stuck with internal hires.