I'm mostly familiar with macro and finance applications; I'll take your word for it that it's not strictly coming from agent rationality in other subfields. Perhaps I should have said, "unforcastability" which would have covered natural experiments and IV as well.
Oops. I wasn't thinking about macro when I disagreed with your earlier claim. Your explanation sounds consistent with my distant recollection of the field (though I'd also take your word for it.)
I shouldn't have disagreed so strongly in the first place.
