> the initial numbers are useless and are little more than throwing opinionated darts
You’re still concluding from ignorance. They are not. A better question would be ask to whom they’re useful and how.
Like, if a fire is burning in a neighborhood, every sighting is valuable. You don’t always need to wait for a comprehensive picture before being able to do anything.
> I judge them as early and either inaccurate and useless or politically motivated to push markets while there's no meaningful data to contradict them
That’s wrong. But it seems to be a common error.
Maybe the solution is to make these numbers available only to gatekeep these numbers. Policymakers, academics, enterprises and banks can get a rarefied sheet for a fee. But the public doesn’t get PDFs, much less public reporting.
> while there's no meaningful data to contradict them
There are bajillions of them. ADP. State reports. Private surveys. Fed studies. That said, I’m leaning towards your view—maybe these data aren’t best made broadly public.
> Like, if a fire is burning in a neighborhood, every sighting is valuable. You don’t always need to wait for a comprehensive picture before being able to do anything.
That assumes there are a meaningful number of reliable reports. If I regularly am told there is a fire only to have authorities come back a week later to adjust reports down I wouldn't trust them. If they over estimated the number of fires based on the last 6-12 months of fire data, with little recent data to go on otherwise, I would ignore the reports.
> Maybe the solution is to make these numbers available only to gatekeep these numbers.
This seems more reasonable at least, though I don't see much use in the data still when its released so early that its based primarily on recent historic trends and few survey responses.
> There are bajillions of them.
Those are all anecdotal in this case. If said sources were applicable and reliable the official data would consider those and have more accurate reporting. My point was that said reports depend on survey results, and when they report early results so early that few responses are in yet them there is no official data to contradict the early reporting.
You’re still concluding from ignorance. They are not. A better question would be ask to whom they’re useful and how.
Like, if a fire is burning in a neighborhood, every sighting is valuable. You don’t always need to wait for a comprehensive picture before being able to do anything.
> I judge them as early and either inaccurate and useless or politically motivated to push markets while there's no meaningful data to contradict them
That’s wrong. But it seems to be a common error.
Maybe the solution is to make these numbers available only to gatekeep these numbers. Policymakers, academics, enterprises and banks can get a rarefied sheet for a fee. But the public doesn’t get PDFs, much less public reporting.
> while there's no meaningful data to contradict them
There are bajillions of them. ADP. State reports. Private surveys. Fed studies. That said, I’m leaning towards your view—maybe these data aren’t best made broadly public.