OpenAI's own estimate is a $14B loss in 2026[1]. Anthropic is aiming to break even this year (and some of that is probably due to Cowork, so that at least isn't unreasonable). So it may be revenue, but it isn't profit, yet...

1: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openais-own-forecast-predicts...

You’re not approaching it from startup accounting. It’s only equity(Sam’s) that matter. Profit is a trifling matter.

Profit is what you do when you're not trying to grow. Name a time in history when a company with an industry-defining product with huge demand failed under the weight of cash flow, or regulation.

Twenty billion in revenue on hundreds of billions in debt is not "making money".

If we judged all startups by the same standards (in terms of revenue to debt ratios), many of today's established companies would have been "failures" at the same point in their life cycle.

I wonder what the ratio of failures and survivors would be if we really judged all startups... survivorship bias is not a great point to make.

its just the dotcom bubble all over again, only at a larger scale.

Theyre selling a dollar for 1 cent, but theyll make up the difference with volume.

Pitches for my new startup:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXDxNCzUspM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KodqIPMbyUg

It's more like "Tesla is going to be bankrupt imminently" all over again.

Name a time in history when a company with an industry-defining product with huge demand failed under the weight of cash flow, or regulation.

Frontier AI is very close to a zero sum game. Focus on profit, and you will lose.

And yet many of the tech incumbents in today's world came out of that era.

Name them.

1. Amazon 2. Google 3. Salesforce 4. ???

One that actually sold things. One that was legitimately sector-defining. One that wasn’t a B2C dotcom.

eBay, VMWare, Akamai, Paypal, to name a few.

actually sold things, not a dotcom, b2b infrastructure, legitimately sector defining

the companies that survived the bust weren’t the ones doing the land grab shenanigans

I mean, given your very specific filter, how many companies exist today that were formed in the last decade would be on the list? Stripe?

And yet many of the tech failures came out of that era.