Just last week, I was accused on HN of "not knowing what I'm talking about" when sharing data showing, and my interpretation of, a declining US dollar globally.
It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied.
So many people are so dependent on this reality that I think it's going to happen long before any Americans accept it has happened.
Similarly I was downvoted for pointing out that the developed markets index returns (30%) doubled US market returns (15%) over the last year. Simultaneously the value of the dollar has dropped 10%. I simply stated that we’re seeing capital flight from the US. Ray Dalio said the same thing this morning.
And if you look at pricing as a proxy for capital flows, SMMD which is Russell 3000 minus S&P500 has had a heck of a run in 3 months. IMO People are retreating the mag7
I hadn’t noticed that , that is interesting. Makes sense to me. That’s not good for the S&P considering that ten stocks make up 40% of the index.
And since the wealth effect is really the only thing keeping the US out of a recession, if the MAG7 fail then we’re looking at serious economic problems.
Yes, people are in denial about these things. I'm still salty for the time I posted I believe the covid money printing will lead to inflation and I was down-voted for it.
It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied.
So many people are so dependent on this reality that I think it's going to happen long before any Americans accept it has happened.