Googles weather prediction engine is already very good, and the new hurricane model was breathtakingly good this season when tested against actual hurricane paths. Meanwhile, the US Government Global Forecasting System continues to get worse.
But to expand: the US flagship forecast model just had its worst year predicting hurricanes since 2005. The trend of errors over the last few years hasn't been great.
I disagree with your logic. Increased mean error 72 hours out (vs 24 hours out) is not an indication that GFS is getting worse over time. At that scale it’s obviously getting better over time; 24 hours out is further in the future than 72 hours out.
However, an increase in the mean error at the same time out year over year (or between 2005 and 2025) is an indication of an issue, and that’s what we see.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/11/googles-new-weather-...