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> It seems very bubbly to me, but not dotcom level bubbly.

Not? Money is thrown after people without really looking at the details, just trying to get in on the hype train? That's exactly how the dotcom bubble felt like.



Nvidia has a trailing PE of 50. Cisco was 200 At the height of the dotcom bubble.

Nowhere near that level. There’s real demand and real revenue this time.

It won’t grow as fast as investors expect, which makes it a bubble if I’m right about that. But not comparable to the dotcom bubble. Not yet anyway.


We shouldn't judge whether an indicator is stable or okay only by looking to see if its the highest historical value.

PE ratios of 50 make no sense, there is no justification for such a ratio. At best we can ignore the ratio and say PE ratios are only useful in certain situations and this isn't one of them.

Imagine if we applied similar logic to other potential concerns. Is a genocide of 500,000 people okay because others have done drastically more?


I’m not asking if it makes sense, I’m simply pointing out that by that measure this is much less extreme than 2000. As I stated, I think we’re in a bubble, so valuations won’t make much sense.

If you have a better measure, share it. I trust data more than your or my feelings on the matter.


Unless you have evidence that this measure of yours is a reliable predictor of how big a bubble is, it's on par with my gut feeling.




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