Doesn't matter, you still can't tell the true demand until there is general availability whatever the cause is.
I don't think that they artificially limit supply initially but they almost certainly do launch before they have enough to fully meet demand. If you thought there was demand for 10,000,000 phones would you really wait until you could stockpile $5Billion worth of inventory before you pressed the launch button?
And it isn't worth having enough manufacturing capacity to fully support the initial rush when you know it will be underutilised for the rest of the year. I would target sufficient capacity to support expected demand to be satisfied through peak season (probably Christmas-Chinese New Year) based on production start date. It would be good to be able to expand between now and Christmas if demand is higher than anticipated. I would not produce enough for the initial launch for practical reasons but the free marketing would definitely be a bonus.
> I don't think that they artificially limit supply initially
I'm pretty sure they do. It would have been deeply embarrasing for Apple if they couldn't claim that "demand outstripped supply" - and it would hurt them on their next launch, because people would be less inclined to pre-order.
2) Resist taking too much from future supply by limiting use of air shipment. Also saves shipping costs. [I'm more used to TVs, phones may be mostly air shipped normally]
3) Have warehouses of stock backed up ready to release.
(2) can be similar to having floating warehouses while items are sea shipped.
I guess that Apple are doing (1) and possibly (2) but I would be surprised if they are doing (3) apart from some supplies so that if some locations don't sell out they can prioritise others rather than to have fully committed everything at the start. If they are doing (3) on a large scale there will probably be evidence of the excess inventory in their quarterly figures.
If you think they are doing (3) in a big way can you suggest why that would work or what the benefit of the approach would be?
I think there is definitely an element of (3) in their strategy.
From the link - "While we have sold out of our initial supply, stores continue to receive iPhone 5 shipments regularly and customers can continue to order online and receive an estimated delivery date"
I think they estimated how many they can sell, gave shops 80% (or some other fraction) of that, and made sure they had millions more ready to provide to these shops over time.
The ideal situation for a manufacturer is to "sell out" in the first few days, but not sell out for so long that people go to rival products.
Apple are exceptionally good at supply chains and hype management, so I have no doubt that they made are controlling supply to make this launch look as successful as possible.
The best way to manage this is having a bit of a stockpile.
The easiest way to manage it is to have a stockpile. The best way is to have a pipeline of shipments coming off boats each day and going through distribution centres as quickly as possible.
Unless you are sure that you are going to sell out everywhere keeping some back makes sense so that you can send them where you need them most. Doesn't make sense to have them sitting in the regions where they aren't needed when other places need them. I picture less than 20% but would see it as distribution strategy rather than a shortage strategy.
I don't think that they artificially limit supply initially but they almost certainly do launch before they have enough to fully meet demand. If you thought there was demand for 10,000,000 phones would you really wait until you could stockpile $5Billion worth of inventory before you pressed the launch button?
And it isn't worth having enough manufacturing capacity to fully support the initial rush when you know it will be underutilised for the rest of the year. I would target sufficient capacity to support expected demand to be satisfied through peak season (probably Christmas-Chinese New Year) based on production start date. It would be good to be able to expand between now and Christmas if demand is higher than anticipated. I would not produce enough for the initial launch for practical reasons but the free marketing would definitely be a bonus.