To be completely clear here, there will be Kickstarter successes, people who raise hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars and deliver brilliantly. If only one in 10 post funding million dollar projects blows up, that one will dominate the story people hear about Kickstarter. Three of four of those, especially if a couple of their big failures turn out to be fairly obviously scammy, and that will be the end of this grand experiment.
Couldn't agree more. I think this actually already occurring. I have funded 13 projects since January, 2012 and in the 9 months since I have funded those I have only received 2 of them. This already makes me hesitant to fund more projects. I think that the slow production cycle and constant push backs will cause people to fall off from funding lots of projects.
With an ecosystem like kick starter somethings are going to work and some aren't.
Also don't forget projects in other areas like designing, furniture, games etc.