We are only talking about Software - other industries like nursing and academia are way more severely impacted.
If you're on an H1B doing basics terraform scripting or maintenance work, your job is already in the process of being automated using a CodeGen tool being monitored by a senior engineer (be they located domestically or abroad).
If you a new H1B employee working at GCP's Sunnyvale office, you will most eventually be transferred to an office in India, Canada, and maybe the UK.
In neither case is new grad and early career hiring within the US going to pick up. And if you have been unemployed for an extended period (more than 6 months), well I'd recommend reading PG's article about building "Ramen Profitable" startups.
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The H1B market in software is bimodal with mass consultancies like WITCH (India), EPAM (Eastern Europe), and Globant (LatAm) who are overwhelmingly screwed because their business model is messed up, and you have people on an H1B who are basically working at a FAANG or FAANG equivalent and who are earning the same salary as citizens - these companies already began the process of offshoring 3-5 years ago when remote work kicked in because much of the CEE and India began giving massive federal and state industrial subsidizes to open offshore offices in IT Parks (and had been doing so for decades).
Short term it's a headache for companies with a large OPT-to-H1B pipeline and they will most likely do mass layoffs or push people to work at GCCs abroad - just like during COVID's early days. Long term, this only continues to incentivize offshoring because now you have a tangible upfront cost you can project and model on ($300k per employee minimum) and compare against the Section 174 impact.
My bigger question would be - if you are an H1B who was born (not necessarily a national) in China or India, why would you even make a large investment like a house or a condo in the US? Best case you are already looking at a 15-20 year backlog just to get a Green Card, and the cost to keep someone on an H1B in the US is a wash compared to hiring abroad if your salary is breaking the 6 figure mark.
Agreed, last paragraph especially. Even if it's OK now, I would not undertake 20year debt when the d2/dt^2 of all immigrant high salary labour related numbers is negative.
However, being more exact with the question I originally had, the white house youtube video, which had trump + friends speaking and signing the order, painted the picture as "100k per H1B per year for the first 6 years".
But the order as written has something completely different.
It says the companies have to pay 100k at time of getting the visa. Doesn't mention per year or 6 years.
And this whole order expires in 12 months, unless it's extended.
And they can exempt industries or whole companies if it's important to national interest.
This difference made me think that this is just optics for what was a concern for a majority of his voter base, and that in practice, they will not extend it beyond 1 year, and also exempt big industries like tech and what not. Maybe have apple do a performative hire of few americans, similar to the performative factory investments the government gloats about [1].
Was curious what you thought about that?
Of course, the media houses have their own alternate reality going on, and the less said about twitter the better.
[1] I don't at all intend to say that all american hires and all factory investments are performative
If you're on an H1B doing basics terraform scripting or maintenance work, your job is already in the process of being automated using a CodeGen tool being monitored by a senior engineer (be they located domestically or abroad).
If you a new H1B employee working at GCP's Sunnyvale office, you will most eventually be transferred to an office in India, Canada, and maybe the UK.
In neither case is new grad and early career hiring within the US going to pick up. And if you have been unemployed for an extended period (more than 6 months), well I'd recommend reading PG's article about building "Ramen Profitable" startups.
-----------
The H1B market in software is bimodal with mass consultancies like WITCH (India), EPAM (Eastern Europe), and Globant (LatAm) who are overwhelmingly screwed because their business model is messed up, and you have people on an H1B who are basically working at a FAANG or FAANG equivalent and who are earning the same salary as citizens - these companies already began the process of offshoring 3-5 years ago when remote work kicked in because much of the CEE and India began giving massive federal and state industrial subsidizes to open offshore offices in IT Parks (and had been doing so for decades).
Short term it's a headache for companies with a large OPT-to-H1B pipeline and they will most likely do mass layoffs or push people to work at GCCs abroad - just like during COVID's early days. Long term, this only continues to incentivize offshoring because now you have a tangible upfront cost you can project and model on ($300k per employee minimum) and compare against the Section 174 impact.
My bigger question would be - if you are an H1B who was born (not necessarily a national) in China or India, why would you even make a large investment like a house or a condo in the US? Best case you are already looking at a 15-20 year backlog just to get a Green Card, and the cost to keep someone on an H1B in the US is a wash compared to hiring abroad if your salary is breaking the 6 figure mark.