All these bearish claims about AI coding would hold weight if models were stuck permanently at the capabilities level they are now with no chance at improvement. This is very likely not the case given improvements over the past year, and even with diminishing returns models will be significantly more capable both independently and as a copilot in a year.
Sure, no one can say what the future will look like. The problem is these products are being marketed today based on what they might do tomorrow. And it's warping perceptions of management who get sold on hype that isn't real yet and possibly not for a very long time.
Hype cycles affect funding. When the Trough of Disillusionment hits anything that's being started will take years to finish due to a more difficult funding terrain.
The arrival of the Trough is predicated by the amount of lies and utter bullshit that have been shoveled out during the earlier parts of the cycle. So while it's unfortunate that the real goods don't get delivered for years and years after they might have been, it's typically and often entirely the fault of the people on the train that this has happened.
There's an awful lot of utter bullshit in the AI hype.
