>There’s no reason these things shouldn’t last more than 20-30 years on average.
This is actually a difficult problem I feel. Misaligned incentives aside. How do you keep a company running if it is so good it captures the whole market in 15 years, but it takes 30 years before it's products need replacing? (This is a simplistic presentation of the issue, but I feel it's understandable enough to start to formulate ideas on how? You could think of lightbulbs that last a century if you like {would lack of competition inhibit progress??}.)
I would love to buy Samsung's washer division, say, and work to make the machines invincible and completely repairable. Then use the profits to bootstrap other such projects. Eventually make the company cooperative, etc, maintain the longevity and work on reducing running costs, improving cleaning, etc.
> How do you keep a company running if it is so good it captures the whole market in 15 years, but it takes 30 years before it's products need replacing?
I think that you don't. Things don't have to be infinite money-spinners to deserve doing. Use the googobs of money you made to invest in something else, and let the parts and repair for the old product take over the majority of the old business. Fire up the lines once a year to make new ones, and keep a few engineers working the rest of the year to look for improvements. Or just keep a tiny shop assembling new ones all year, whatever's cost efficient; if you focused on durability and repairability, your best customers probably could put their own unit together from your parts catalog, so you certainly can at any scale.
That might be a good metric for repairability. Could one of your customers build one of your products if they purchased everything from your parts catalog (assuming prequisite knowledge)? If so, you can scale down indefinitely.
>Things don't have to be infinite money-spinners to deserve doing.
The point here is to optimise societal benefit of the production.
I like your ideas about repairability and such. One thing in the back of my mind here is the issue in the UK where we used to lead, somewhat, in nuclear power. We stopped building new power stations and lost the ability as a nation to do so. One would want not just the 30 year old washing machine to be manufacturable, but also for tech improvements to be added in over time. One would also want to extend the manufacture from washing machines to other goods in order to extend the societal benefit. If it can't sustain personnel, then that impacts societal benefit too; as well as impacting ability to attract talent. People being able to insert a replacement control board is different to the company making new control boards that include necessary modifications for changes in the power supply system or improvements to the motors, say.
- support model. You pay 1/10th the manufacturing cost per year. They immediately give you a new one if it fails. Profits are dictated by the difference between the real mean time to failure and ten years. “10” is set by law.
- the price of the machine includes the cost of supplying the above service contract for 30 years, by law. The price of the machine therefore drops as the reliability increases.
- all machines must be 100% recycled by the manufacturer, who also pays for environmental externalities. They pay a prorated multiple equal to the number of years under 10 that a machine is in service before replacement.
- warranties must be 10 years and renewable, and must cover parts, labor, and installation, including things like modifications to cabinets and and legally required code improvements
Not everyone would buy a new fancy machine the same year, so in steady state, they should be able to sell machines, just fewer per capita than today.
Hmmm, even if plans of that nature are not mandated to exist, I wonder if having a clear legal definition of them could help create a market anyway.
> including things like modifications to cabinets
Or perhaps require that the "plan" being purchased includes specs on min/max dimension and max weight.
> the price of the machine includes the cost of supplying the above service contract for 30 years
This seems like a recipe for bankruptcy though. For example, suppose Acme Appliances has a lot of customers, and then that country elects a crook as President who abruptly declared an (illegal?) import-tax (tariff) of one bajillion percent on all the spare parts.
This is actually a difficult problem I feel. Misaligned incentives aside. How do you keep a company running if it is so good it captures the whole market in 15 years, but it takes 30 years before it's products need replacing? (This is a simplistic presentation of the issue, but I feel it's understandable enough to start to formulate ideas on how? You could think of lightbulbs that last a century if you like {would lack of competition inhibit progress??}.)
I would love to buy Samsung's washer division, say, and work to make the machines invincible and completely repairable. Then use the profits to bootstrap other such projects. Eventually make the company cooperative, etc, maintain the longevity and work on reducing running costs, improving cleaning, etc.