How would you envision Viaweb not working out? Would it be a technical problem where Graham et al weren't able to produce viaweb, a business problem where they weren't able to sell or make money off of it, or a market problem where there simply wasn't anyone interested in online stores, or do you simply mean if Viaweb was something else that would fail?
To me it feels like any of those problems would require the world to be quite different from how it is.
Are you suggesting that the success of Viaweb was inevitable?
There are a million possible failure cases for any startup, including a large number that are for all practical purposes out of your control - a car accident could disable a key participant, a better competitor could suddenly pounce on the scene, fraudsters could decide to make you a target, etc. With all due respect to PG, you don't have to change the world much to see Viaweb fail. Even with hindsight.
"If you can just avoid dying, you get rich. That sounds like a joke, but it's actually a pretty good description of what happens in a typical startup. It certainly describes what happened in Viaweb. We avoided dying till we got rich."
That quote brings to mind the following from the Hitchhiker's Guide:
"There is an art, it says, or rather, a knack to flying. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss."
I think with respect to startups the quote is more than just funny, it captures the bravery and apparent foolishness but great rewards of the endeavor.
> The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss
It's also a perfect description of how orbital mechanics work - the Moon is actually falling down towards us, it's just moving so fast in the other direction that it constantly misses the Earth :).
To me it feels like any of those problems would require the world to be quite different from how it is.