That is quite the delta, but why is it assumed BLS is the more correct one?
From the BLS site on their methodology[0]:
> The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, is a monthly survey of approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 631,000 worksites throughout the United States.
> All new samples are solicited by computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), and data are collected for the first 5 months via this mode. After the initiation period, many sample units are transferred to one of several less costly reporting methods that are self-initiated by the respondent.
How is a survey from 121k businesses better than the actual payroll data from a company handling 460k companies[1]?
Isn’t the larger sample generally considered better? Isn’t source data generally considered better than a phone survey of self-reporting?
Looking at the two methodologies, it sounds like BLS data is noise, not ADP.
From the BLS site on their methodology[0]:
> The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, is a monthly survey of approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 631,000 worksites throughout the United States.
> All new samples are solicited by computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), and data are collected for the first 5 months via this mode. After the initiation period, many sample units are transferred to one of several less costly reporting methods that are self-initiated by the respondent.
How is a survey from 121k businesses better than the actual payroll data from a company handling 460k companies[1]?
Isn’t the larger sample generally considered better? Isn’t source data generally considered better than a phone survey of self-reporting?
Looking at the two methodologies, it sounds like BLS data is noise, not ADP.
[0] https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm
[1] 2022 data https://mediacenter.adp.com/2022-03-02-ADP-National-Employme...