> I think impact certainty for a century or more might be physically impossible, because of uncertainty in orbital parameters and chaotic behavior of the whole system.
We already have 10s of years of certainty with the current observations. Most of the uncertainty comes from the interactions of unknown objects. As the mappings of objects increase, our predictions will become much better.
The other thing to consider is that large objects will have much better certainty. A 10km asteroid won't be influenced (much) by colliding with 100 1m asteroids. It will only be impacted if it hits or swings by something like a 1km asteroid.
Rubin should in a pretty short timeframe (a few years) give us an orbital mapping of all the >1km asteroids, which is pretty exciting.
We already have 10s of years of certainty with the current observations. Most of the uncertainty comes from the interactions of unknown objects. As the mappings of objects increase, our predictions will become much better.
The other thing to consider is that large objects will have much better certainty. A 10km asteroid won't be influenced (much) by colliding with 100 1m asteroids. It will only be impacted if it hits or swings by something like a 1km asteroid.
Rubin should in a pretty short timeframe (a few years) give us an orbital mapping of all the >1km asteroids, which is pretty exciting.