Markus has been consistently wrong over the many years predicting the (lack of) progress of the current deep learning methods. Altman has been correct so far.
Marcus has made some good predictions and some bad ones. That’s usually the way with people who make specific predictions — there are no prophets.
Not sure I’d agree that SA has been any more consistently right. You can easily find examples of overconfidence from him (though he rarely says anything specific enough to count as a prediction).
