You aren't seriously suggesting that people will take out prediction market bets on people's death dates and then commit murder to rig the bet? How would a prediction market on anybody's death date get enough liquidity for this strategy to ever come close to breaking even?
They've already used prediction markets to bet on peoples death as in the case of Sinwar from Hamas. It seems like all the pieces are there and moving into place- I'm just an artist/creative imagining things though(shrug)
It would be one way to hire a hitman. A "bet" on the prediction market would effectively function as a bounty on the target's head.
E.g. "I bet $1,000,000 of BTC that [politician] won't be assassinated before the end of 2025. Anyone want to prove me wrong?"
That was effectively the idea behind the "Assassination Market" site that popped up in the early days of Bitcoin [0]. Obviously that was just some stupid fantasy site made by some libertarian crypto weirdo that never led to anything real. (As far as I'm aware, no-one has yet assassinated Barack Obama.) But there's a first time for everything.
