The reality is that a majority of people are simply too lazy to do this stuff. We are talking about populations that call a guy to come change a lightbulb - rigging a drone with explosives, figuring out control at a distance - this is beyond the scope of capability for the majority of malcontents. Most would-be pipe bombers end up nabbed at the point where they try to purchase a charge for their devices. Same deal here. Yes, there’s scope for a small number of bad actors to wreak havoc, but the thing about small numbers is that they are readily dealt with through existing law enforcement frameworks.
On a state level, war is war, and arms races are never static. You send flotillas of drones? I manufacture flotillas of counter-drone drones.
Yes, there is an asymmetry currently, but just as air supremacy was once seen as “well, this makes war practically impossible”, and became just another battleground, the same will happen here.
I often have to point out they won. They wanted to change the US, and the country is, today, almost unrecognizable. Patriot Act, FISA courts, and now illegal deportations and an alliance with Russia at the top level.
The US wanted to change. PNAC spelled out almost all of what happened after 9/11, before 9/11, and it was a gift to the security industrial complex hawks. They literally said in their report that a Pearl Harbor type event would likely be necessary:
“Further, the process of transformation… is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event—like a new Pearl Harbor.”
You put that quite bluntly but i agree with you. Just look at all the dumb mistakes would be terrorists make. If drone warfare was so easy then hamas - a (once) decently competent militant organisation would be using it as a great equaliser against israeli troops. The truth is that besides for on october 7 when they were used extremely effectively they have been absent. Israeli troops on the other hand are all using them for surveillance. It looks like only states have the abilities to maintain drone tactics.
Domestically this seems to be the wisdom, but not in occupied countries and/or countries where you killed a lot of peoples’ family members. These will 100% be a good tactic for various guerrilla fighters.
The reality is that a majority of people are simply too lazy to do this stuff. We are talking about populations that call a guy to come change a lightbulb - rigging a drone with explosives, figuring out control at a distance - this is beyond the scope of capability for the majority of malcontents. Most would-be pipe bombers end up nabbed at the point where they try to purchase a charge for their devices. Same deal here. Yes, there’s scope for a small number of bad actors to wreak havoc, but the thing about small numbers is that they are readily dealt with through existing law enforcement frameworks.
On a state level, war is war, and arms races are never static. You send flotillas of drones? I manufacture flotillas of counter-drone drones.
Yes, there is an asymmetry currently, but just as air supremacy was once seen as “well, this makes war practically impossible”, and became just another battleground, the same will happen here.