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Two sets of people:

A) The overconfident that self-describe as intuitive at reading people

B) people skilled at reading people

You have seen a lot of A and you are arguing that means that B doesn't exist.

I think that both exist.

For the B's it is a bit of a superpower, and I suspect they don't generally show off their superpower unless you have a very close relationship with them.

I am skilled enough to recognize the A's, but the B's are harder to recognize. To recognize the A's you have to be better at reading others than the A's are. To recognize the B's you need to be as skilled as them or better (which I believe is difficult, and uncommon).

When on the receiving end of A's or B's judgements you need to be able to read yourself better than they can plus you need to have zero self-denial: to judge if their reading is correct. Many people are just not that good at self-awareness (we often act according to childish drives).



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