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If you want to understand the likely effects of AI on human material welfare, don't look to religious leaders or computer scientists for answers. Look to the people who study this topic professionally: economists.


A bit reckless to put full faith in economists who will inherently have their own separate set of biases.

I would like to also think that a religious figure like the Pope interacts with and understands humans on a more personal level than any economist could.

I also just want to make clear that I am atheist.


David Autor was recently interviewed by Martin Wolf on the effect of AI on jobs. The question of if its fair to compare a possible economic shock on knowledge work to the China shock in manufacturing. He had two responses to the question:

1. The geographic dispersal of knowledge work should allow retraining of displaced workers, in opposition to the loss of manufacturing jobs which centre around single employer towns.

2. The china shock resulted in a sudden drop in prices, whereas AI would lead to efficiency gains.

The second point, to me, feels more pertinent, and mixed with the first could allow for a freeing up of labour, ideally into higher value add work. I think the time horizon is also worth speaking about here, as most economists will be thinking in 5-10 years where we can expect substantial improvements in models, but barring new model architecutre, it seems doubtful that we'll see some sort of emergent intelligence from LLMs.

Post-ASI, knowledge labour necessarily has zero value, at which point the challenge is to design an equitable society.

The full interview is fairly interesting in itself: https://www.ft.com/content/4e260abd-2528-4d34-8fa4-a21eabfd6...


Economists don't study human dignity or justice which the Pope was talking about.


They literally do.


They explicitly don’t. Money and dignity are in no way related. They may, on occasion, study how people will deprive themselves of dignity for money, but of course this is not within a hundred miles of the primary interest of the field. It is essentially macro-psychology. It is trying to remove identification of the individual to find generic patterns.


Economics isn’t just “money”.

Economists study things like stripper names to abortion effects on crime. Go ahead and read the book Freakonomics.


Which elements of this book haven't been totally debunked?


Yah I heard about people trying to debunk it over the years, with zero effect.


Economics and money are not the same thing. This is why I specifically pointed out that they’re just mediocre psychologists.


No, they don't.


Leo XIV is not merely talking about human material welfare.


If economists are so smart, why aren't they rich?


diminishing to negative marginal returns to wealth past ~80k salary

(famous economic study)




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