> Do you think AI assisted coding has a negative impact on developer's growth?
Almost certainly. Easier to do things the easier way, but you never learn unless you do it the hard way. Maybe that won't matter -- i.e., the skills that one would've learned are now to be subsumed by AI. But as long as humans are needed, it will be necessary to build deep skills and understanding of systems, which AI coding does not seem to give us.
> Are today's juniors never gonna reach senior levels because of AI assisted coding?
Some definitely will, same as some people today get really good at programming in assembly. Almost certainly fewer will -- at least to what we today consider "senior".
> Is the need for developers gonna increase in the longterm but decrease in shortterm?
It all depends on the shape of the curve -- how far AI coding will be able to take us, and how fast.
It turns out to mostly serve the same purpose as low-code/no-code, where devs are needed to do 'serious' work and mixing the two becomes difficult? I doubt there'll be a slump at all.
It turns out to obviate the need for devs entirely, but only for certain common tasks -- or, it speeds up devs across the board by enough that significant double-digit (e.g. 40-50%) percentages of their work is now handled by AI? Then yes I expect we'll see a slump of some degree. But if it's not close to a 2x multiplier I expect we slump back to the first category, given just how much code it's clear there is still to be written.
On the other hand, though: if AI continues to advance and actually replaces developers 1-to-1 at lower cost? We're probably in for a sharp exponential and the question isn't how many developer jobs will be left, it's how long humanity has left.
> Do you think AI assisted coding has a negative impact on developer's growth?
Almost certainly. Easier to do things the easier way, but you never learn unless you do it the hard way. Maybe that won't matter -- i.e., the skills that one would've learned are now to be subsumed by AI. But as long as humans are needed, it will be necessary to build deep skills and understanding of systems, which AI coding does not seem to give us.
> Are today's juniors never gonna reach senior levels because of AI assisted coding?
Some definitely will, same as some people today get really good at programming in assembly. Almost certainly fewer will -- at least to what we today consider "senior".
> Is the need for developers gonna increase in the longterm but decrease in shortterm?
It all depends on the shape of the curve -- how far AI coding will be able to take us, and how fast.
It turns out to mostly serve the same purpose as low-code/no-code, where devs are needed to do 'serious' work and mixing the two becomes difficult? I doubt there'll be a slump at all.
It turns out to obviate the need for devs entirely, but only for certain common tasks -- or, it speeds up devs across the board by enough that significant double-digit (e.g. 40-50%) percentages of their work is now handled by AI? Then yes I expect we'll see a slump of some degree. But if it's not close to a 2x multiplier I expect we slump back to the first category, given just how much code it's clear there is still to be written.
On the other hand, though: if AI continues to advance and actually replaces developers 1-to-1 at lower cost? We're probably in for a sharp exponential and the question isn't how many developer jobs will be left, it's how long humanity has left.