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There's probably a business case to be written here about total addressable market. The world is a big place, but after all the people willing to pay $50-$100 for some novelty info buy their dossiers, where does new revenue come from to keep the lights on?



New people turning 18. It's no different than the FL studio model, which has worked admirably well for much longer than this has been a company. The population isn't static.


The FL Studio model is one that should be celebrated and imitated often. Buy-for-life software builds an incredible community around it.


FL Studio sells sound packs too.

Also there isn't any cost to selling a new key after the software is made.

FL also wouldn't have astronomical valuations of 1bn or whatever 23 made it to.


This is one of the rare cases where TAM is not even worth discussing; it's like food, or clothing- everyone is a candidate.

Even in third world scenarios, it you secure grant of government funding, anyone could become customers.

What actually went wrong here is not a matter of growth but failure to attain what should have become a sustainable business model.


one would hope that they could find a way to be sustainable with a payment of $100 per record or whatever it was. (i don't have a good sense of what their costs per commercial sequence are.)

but the difference between food and 23andme, beyond the obvious necessity v curiosity, is that 23andme is a 1 time purchase. once someone has seen their results, they've extracted all the value and have no reason to buy anything else.


Pets? People are crazy about the genetic makeup (and possible diseases) of their pets.


It’s true the “Give me $100 to tell you things about yourself” segment is already taken by fortune tellers.




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