In 10 years, no trace of our current practices will remain in a recognizable form. It'll take longer than most of us think -- imagine how nonplussed Winograd and the rest of the SHRDLU-era AI gurus would have been to see how long it took to pull off the dice-matching trick in the video -- but when it does happen, it'll happen faster than we think. We're not yet at the tipping point, but it's close.
In 10 years, no trace of our current practices will remain in a recognizable form. It'll take longer than most of us think -- imagine how nonplussed Winograd and the rest of the SHRDLU-era AI gurus would have been to see how long it took to pull off the dice-matching trick in the video -- but when it does happen, it'll happen faster than we think. We're not yet at the tipping point, but it's close.