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They either pay dividends or investors hope they will pay dividends one day (even META and GOOGL do now!) Or the company can get bought out.

Those are all very concrete reasons for valuations



GOOG currently pays ~0.47% APY. The GOOG stock price could reflect some certainty of these dividend payments, but there is not much stock price independent risk basis to choose GOOG over e.g. US treasury bonds at ~4.32% or Swiss bonds at ~0.77% APY.

As well, micro-fluctuations in APY driven by stock price values create inconsistent hopes: a dividend investor that will "never" sell should hope that stock prices do not exceed inflation so that APY is stable or goes up, while most people hope that stock prices inflate with the economy or go up so that appreciation can be realized at sale.

Then there are the people who bought at IPO, at which the closest thing to a true valuation exists: it is at the IPO cost basis that a true value is established. IPO is also where the company performance becomes coupled to the stock price as the general public invests money into the company in the sale, and employees with stock options become incentivized to exercise any available control over the stock price, including increasing company performance.

I think there is a continuum between dividend investors and stock price speculators, and there is also some kind of monotonically devolving continuum from a rational value basis into chaotic market forces. In one corner of this N-dimensional continuum, I can definitely agree with you.




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