I’m not sure I agree, Xi already proofed that he’s a great political mind by his actions with in the inner politics of his own party.
I think he’ll treat the war with Taiwan rationally as the political tool that it can be.
When the set of constraints and what he has to gain will be in his favor he may do it.
I’m not an expert but I honestly can’t not see him risk what he built for so many years for that amount of potential destabilization.
This is an interesting theory. Under this line of political thinking, it’s just as important that the U.S. project that they would come to help if the aim is political stability or maintaining the status quo.