No, but if you'd like to make a bet on it, and are happy to lose money, I'm probably happy to put $500 on the line, winnings to charity (mine's Partners In Health).

What would you like the terms to be?

Sure! 36 months to deadpool. I'd do $200 to NGLTF.

You're on. My contact info is in my profile. When I inevitably win, I'll match your dollars, because PIH is awesome. :)

I've totally added this to my calendar for July 2015 and will be calling you guys on it! ;-)

BTW, congratulations are in order for you topping the 100k!

you guys should set a more realistic target. it probably won't deadpool since it can be run on a very small amount of money.

a target such as cumulative pageviews, or that the aggregate svbtle website will not become a major source of tech opinion (and will not break into the techmeme leaderboard[1])

[1] http://techmeme.com/lb

I agree that the bet he proposed is doomed. I'm good with some alternate metric, too.

Are you you assuming they won't pivot if necessary?

I wish there were a convenient site to do bets like this. (My charity would probably be MAPS, but PiH is in my top 5).

Actually, I have been thinking about this for last 90 mins...

Longbets is kind of the same idea, but seems restricted to famous people (tptacek or pg would qualify I think).

I was not able to find a website that exactly does this. I feel like this idea might have big potential, and can go viral easily.

edit: seems like everyone can create a bet on that site.

http://iwagerr.com is a twitter-based platform for random, friendly bets people make with one another all the time.

Disclaimer: This was my "weekend" project a year or so back. A revamp is in order!