When trump enables a war in the middle east that's bigger than the dems would have ever allowed, will you take that credit back and say it was a mistake to believe that republicans are no longer a war party?
They're both war parties, but the Democrats are actively courting Dick Cheney and his progeny[1]. We already know what Dick Cheney thinks of war in the Middle East - it's not something we have to wait to find out about.
Agreed. Republicans used to be the party of war. Trump substantially changed that as a perception within his voting base. Talk to active American military service men and women or veterans. Their attitude towards blindly trusting the government in new wars has substantially shifted. I don't think Trump actually caused the shift. I think he tapped into this growing sentiment and ramped it up to the point of significantly influencing the Republican voting base.
As for the left and Democrats, the shift is equally noticeable in public perception. But instead of the sentiment being "oorah let's go to war for American glory" it's instead being heavily influenced by emotional appeals. This was most evident in Democrats support of the Russia / Ukraine war on social media. Once the leaders of the Democrat party, including President Biden, saw the overwhelming public support, they implemented policies that ultimately led to the expansion of the war. Refer to Anthony Bilken's visit to Kyiv during early peace talks. And again, I'm not making a claim as to who's right or wrong. Just trying to provide some context on how public perception is being leveraged and manipulated on both sides.
It's not a matter of my personal belief. It's just the public perception. But public perception does play an important role when a government is actively trying to start a new war like when the US invaded Iraq.
You're not meaning the same thing by "pro war" or "anti war".
So long as the war in the middle east or Ukraine does not involve US soldiers on the ground, Trump can finance or equip one of the side - for the average voter in the US, there is no "war".
Maybe the the young men in the US were more concerned about the war in Russia escalating to a conflict that would involve US soldiers on the ground.
We know how Trump will behave with Putin (he will offer half of Ukraine on a plate in exchange for pinky promises.)
We can suspect that Trump will not move a finger when those promises are broken and the Baltics are invaded.
What is still a mystery is how Trump will deal with Iran - here, there is no clear policy that will please both Israël and Russia, so someone will have to give.
Both the Israel and Ukraine wars started under Biden. It's hotly debated how it would have all played out under Trump. An no, I'm not a Trump supporter. But context and public perception is important. And understanding how and what Trump did to radically shift the Republican party is important to future predictions and restoring balance. This is my primary claim as to why Harris lost. Democrats have drifted too far from the truth on the ground with large swaths of Americans. And yes, Republicans have done the same, but not to the same extent which is why they won. I hope the Democratic party can recalibrate and learn from the mistakes for next time.
I'm absolutely certain that if Trump was in the White House the full on invasion of Ukraine would not have been started. Not because he's some exceptional negotiator or because he brought peace, but because he was doing such a great job of undermining US influence that Russia would have been dumb to distract them from it. As soon as that stopped happening, they pulled the trigger on something they have been planning for quite a while. It's probable that now, Russia will try chomping as much as possible from Ukraine in the short term and then just sue for a respite of a couple of years until they deem the opportunity is ripe to finish what they started.
I'm absolutely certain that if Trump was in the White House the full on invasion of Ukraine would not have been started. Not because he's some exceptional negotiator or because he brought peace, but because he was doing such a great job of undermining US influence that Russia would have been dumb to distract them from it.
It's one thing to speculate that this is what would have happened, call it one's "gut feeling" or "character read" or even "reasoned speculation", and leave it go at that.
But to be "absolutely certain" about a pure hypothetical like this (concerning a war that dumb and irrational for Putin to start, in any case) seems, well -- quite strange.
It's also unlikely, given that one of the key drivers for Putin's decision to launch the full-scale invasion was likely (not proven of course, but by any analysis it does seem highly likely) Trump's isolation stance in Afghanistan, and blatant backstabbing of the local Afghan government. This surely emboldened Putin, convincing him that a new era of disdain for interventionism had take hold on the US side -- and that he could most likely go in and have his way with Ukraine, with no significant consequences of any kind.
I admit it worded much stronger than it warrants. Still, the point stands, I would have expected Russia to stay put not not mess with the NATO weakening process that Trump was engaging in. I'm not saying it would have been a good outcome for the world, because it would likely just have delayed the invasion, and probably been more successful when it happened.
The reason is that Trump was giving Russia everything they wanted without the need for a war. Why invade Ukraine for resources when you can just call up Trump and say "make Ukraine give me resources"?
And Israel invades Gaza every year, under every president. It's just that in 2023, someone decided they had the propaganda power to make it seem like a new thing and that it was Biden's fault.
Yeah the "no new wars" talking point doesn't make sense. Trump's solution for peace is to just give into Russian demands and let them take over every previously soviet-union country. And let's not forget all the drama that came out of Trump moving the Israeli embassy to Jerusalem which sparked even more tension between the Palestinians and Israel. Also the talks he had with Taliban behind the Afghani Government's back which is why we had to pull out like we did.
