Can we talk about how the voter turnout for the GOP and Dems both follow linear patterns in the last few races, except for Dem turnout in 2020? How do we explain the statistical anomaly, other than the obvious?
It was the obvious: Mail-in votes favor Democrats. There were more available mail-in vote systems in 2020 due to covid.
Mail-in voting favoring democrats is well known, and is why the Republican party vilifies it and and anything that may be biased toward Democrat votes.
Except, mail-in voting does not favor democrats. It was about even, and the GOP actually had an advantage in many states in both the mail-ins and the election day votes. This bit of folk wisdom is done. Republicans have embraced early voting, and it only made more GOP voters.
Is this a joke? It's widely known by anyone paying attention that Democrats embraced mail-in voting much more aggressively than Republicans, especially in 2020.
I'm being downvoted into oblivion for stating "the obvious" elsewhere in this thread. Look, I don't know if they actually stole it, but after last night, many people is having your exact same thoughts. It doesn't make any sense whatsoever from a statistical standpoint.
What's obvious? It was a weird election coming out of COVID. Trump also received a huge amount of votes, maybe more than he'll get this time. Should we investigate him now since Harris is back down the 60s? Where did all her votes go?
Yeah, I never believed any of the "stolen election" diatribe, but after last night, I'm actually starting to change my mind on that. I now think it's actually very possible.
I don't buy it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There were investigations by the GOP into 2020 voter fraud for the last 4 years, and nothing of note was discovered. To go from that lack of evidence to large amounts of fraudulent votes is a bit much for me.
Other explanations could include things along the lines of unemployed people/people at home (COVID) having more time to get into politics. Or, this election cycle burning them out, or Gaza, or all of the above and more.
For prosecution, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. As Americans think and look back upon the course of history in deciding whom to vote for, really their own gut feeling is all that is necessary. I mean, we all know that people like Al Capone tread very carefully to avoid any direct criminal liability. Yet, we all knew he did it, despite the lack of incontrivertible evidence that was admissible in court.
> For prosecution, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
I was thinking more along the lines of, for me to believe the claims.
No prosecution would have been necessary outside the court of public opinion. I mean if there is fraud, prosecute it no matter who did it. But Trump hired an investigator for the news cycle, and the guy found nothing.
Notice also the lack of sudden 100% Trump vote drops and the lack of sudden shifts. Instead the election went off like literally every other election in our lifetime where most states are called on election night, and those that aren't are pariahs and we're all left wondering what the hell are they doing?
No 'pipe leaks'. No videos of counters covering up windows. No sudden last minute rule changes. It was... unremarkable and normal.
I think this is going to go down like the Kennedy - Nixon election where the allegations of fraud seemed made up at the time, but a few decades later, after we've calmed down about the candidates, we will uncover the truth. Whether it was enough to shift the 2020 election ... who knows, but the truth has the habit of coming out eventually.
I mean 20 million people sat at home? Really? That's an insane amount.
Well over ten million votes are still yet to be counted on the West Coast. Is there a reason why you haven't considered this? If you add uncounted votes then the total count is only 5 million less than 2020. Such swings have certainly happened before between adjacent elections, such as from 2000 to 2004.
I would assume Trump has improved his margins in California. When I visited my in-laws a few weeks ago (hispanic immigrants with a huge family), many had voted trump and trump fervor in the town (Santa Maria) was higher than ever.
Yes, in 2020 there were 100% Harris/Biden drops, but I am saying that this election, I don't know of any 100% Trump drops in counties with thousands of votes. That's why there's no contesting here.
