It is yet inevitable - but it wasn’t sustainable in the slightest when it was first attempted - Concorde was akin to the Apollo programme, in being precocious and prohibitively expensive due to the technical limitations of the time. It will, ultimately, be little more remarkable than flying is currently, even as we hop around on suborbital trajectories.
It isn’t a question of optimism - in fact, I am deeply pessimistic as to what ML will mean for humanity as a whole, at least in the short term - it’s a question of seeing the features of a confluence of technology, will, and knowledge that has in the past spurred technical revolution.
Newcomen was far from the first to develop a steam engine, but there was suddenly demand for such beasts, as shallow mines became exhausted, and everything else followed from that.
ML has been around in one form or another for decades now - however we are now at the point where the technology exists, insofar as modern GPUs exist, the will exists, insofar as trillions of dollars of investment flood into the space, and the knowledge exists, insofar as we have finally produced machine learning models which are non-trivial.
Just as with powered flight, the technology - the internal combustion engine - had to be in place, as did the will (the First World War), and the knowledge, which we had possessed for centuries but had no means or will to act upon. The idea was, in fact, ridiculous. Nobody could see the utility - until someone realised you could use them to drop ordnance on your enemies.
With supersonic flight - the technology is emerging, the will will be provided by the substantial increase in marginal utility provided by sub-hour transit compared to the relatively small improvement Concorde offered, and the knowledge, again, we already have.
So no, not optimism - just observance of historical forces. When you put these things together, there tend to be technical revolutions, and resultant societal change.
The cool thing for you is that this statement is unfalsifiable.
But what I really took issue with was your timeframe in the original comment. Your statements imply you fully expect AGI to be a thing within a couple of years. I do not.
> insofar as modern GPUs exist, the will exists, insofar as trillions of dollars of investment flood into the space
Funny thing. I expect deep learning to have a really bad next decade, people betting on it to see quick bad results, and maybe it even disappear from the visible economy for a while exactly because there have been hundreds of billions of dollars invested.
What is no fault of the technology, that I expect to have some usefulness on the long term. I expect a really bad reaction to it coming exclusively from the excessive hype.
It isn’t a question of optimism - in fact, I am deeply pessimistic as to what ML will mean for humanity as a whole, at least in the short term - it’s a question of seeing the features of a confluence of technology, will, and knowledge that has in the past spurred technical revolution.
Newcomen was far from the first to develop a steam engine, but there was suddenly demand for such beasts, as shallow mines became exhausted, and everything else followed from that.
ML has been around in one form or another for decades now - however we are now at the point where the technology exists, insofar as modern GPUs exist, the will exists, insofar as trillions of dollars of investment flood into the space, and the knowledge exists, insofar as we have finally produced machine learning models which are non-trivial.
Just as with powered flight, the technology - the internal combustion engine - had to be in place, as did the will (the First World War), and the knowledge, which we had possessed for centuries but had no means or will to act upon. The idea was, in fact, ridiculous. Nobody could see the utility - until someone realised you could use them to drop ordnance on your enemies.
With supersonic flight - the technology is emerging, the will will be provided by the substantial increase in marginal utility provided by sub-hour transit compared to the relatively small improvement Concorde offered, and the knowledge, again, we already have.
So no, not optimism - just observance of historical forces. When you put these things together, there tend to be technical revolutions, and resultant societal change.