Governments will choose the path of least pain everytime and that means EVERY SINGLE TIME they will choose to hyperinflate the money supply rather than pay their debts.
No one is going to purposfully crash the single largest market in the world. Hyperinflation is comming.
Do you think it will get as high as %50 per month or something like %25 a year and would this inflation have any effect on future US Federal liabilities?
Been hearing that since the 1970s, with more reason. 1979 looked a lot more like hyperinflation than 2023 did, with 14% inflation.
By the way, hyperinflation doesn't just mean "large inflation". It's defined as 50% increase in prices per month. Yes, governments often (not always) choose to inflate the money supply rather than pay their debts. No, nobody deliberately chooses hyperinflation.
Mind you, you could be right this time. It could be that the next government will overspend enough (no matter who wins) and Congress will be irresponsible enough that we do in fact wind up in a hyperinflation. But so far, naysayers have predicted ten of the last zero hyperinflations.
I agree, "The USD/American economy will crash!" and "China will implode!" are perhaps the two textbook examples of yokels yapping baselessly about doomsdays I've consistently heard and turn out wrong over my entire lifetime.
Entire foreign countries (read: most of the world worth caring about) invest in and hold the US, whether that's stocks or bonds (Treasury bonds especially) or literal USD. The only way the US crashes at this point is if the entirety of humanity has shit the bed, it's otherwise a force of nature only going up up up.
Well, I'm not quite that optimistic. The only way the US crashes is if it stops being the best option out there. If the EU and the euro, or China and the yuan, or India and the rupee become better options than the US and the dollar, then people will stop holding so many dollars, and the US will be in trouble. That is a thing that can happen, even though it hasn't in 80 years.
Exactly, I really like your style and thinking, AnimalMuppet.
My fear for 10+ years has been that another county or block will start a gold, commody or electronic based currency and the world will flood to the backed currency dumping USD as fast as possible. Bitcoin ALMOST became that black hole of USD before Adam Back's Blockstream was able to sucessfully hijack the BTC GitHub repo and inject hacks like SegWit and RBF that essentially killed BTC as a currency.
USD doesn't have to die, just something slightly better has to come along.
No one is going to purposfully crash the single largest market in the world. Hyperinflation is comming.