I'm not so totally pessimistic about their chances of winning. That 4th Cir. case is interesting. Carpenter touched on this subject. So did Jones in 2012. Nobody thought that Jones would be decided the way it was because practically every court had swung in favor of the cops. Obviously the makeup of the court was different, but I'm not sure this is a partisan case?
Jones relied on the fact pattern of a physical intrusion on private property (the police placing a sensor on a car). Here, the only difference between Flock and the closed-circuit cameras that have blanketed America for decades is the fact that a computer is looking at the images.