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No, you've reintroduced ordering.



randallsquared is correct. You are misunderstanding sequences of related events.

Running the roulette wheel twice is a sequence of unrelated events. The (ideal) roulette wheel is totally random. The results of run #1 are unrelated to the results of run #2.

However, in this case of the man and woman both having two children, one of which is a boy, but the man having as an oldest child a boy we are talking about two different scenarios. The events are suddenly related. If you want it spelled out, the matrices are,

The childbirth options are this,

BB BG GB GG

However, for the man it's been stated that his oldest child is a boy, so it becomes,

BB BG XX XX

For the woman (who has as a condition 'at least one boy, but not necessarily the eldest') it is,

BB BG GB XX

(Where 'B' is Boy, 'G' is Girl and 'X' is a non-option).




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