I agree that it would be a ridiculous move that would split the EU, but people have done such things in the past anyway.
The French discarded all the credibility gained through their extremely bloody victory in WWI by not helping Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1938-9. Prior to that, France was admired and followed by a dozen countries in Central and Eastern Europe which sought to emulate it. Nowadays, meh. It has been almost 90 years since the moment of French weakness and the trust is still not repaired.
Putin himself started a major land war with barely 200 000 soldiers against the second largest country in Europe. Any serious military planner would say that it is not nearly enough to ensure victory, and many people including me in fact considered the whole thing a bluff just by looking at the inadequate numbers. Yet here we are, in precisely the sort of unwinnable war of attrition that is the result of such a bad decision. It may yet end Russia as a power, not directly through the force of arms, but through later destabilization.
People are experts on stupid decisions, especially if they feel in a Zugzwang. I am not sure what German social democrats are going to do if their labor unions start to seriously push them. The threat of losing important factory jobs is potentially very destabilizing for the established left wing of the German political spectrum.
The French discarded all the credibility gained through their extremely bloody victory in WWI by not helping Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1938-9. Prior to that, France was admired and followed by a dozen countries in Central and Eastern Europe which sought to emulate it. Nowadays, meh. It has been almost 90 years since the moment of French weakness and the trust is still not repaired.
Putin himself started a major land war with barely 200 000 soldiers against the second largest country in Europe. Any serious military planner would say that it is not nearly enough to ensure victory, and many people including me in fact considered the whole thing a bluff just by looking at the inadequate numbers. Yet here we are, in precisely the sort of unwinnable war of attrition that is the result of such a bad decision. It may yet end Russia as a power, not directly through the force of arms, but through later destabilization.
People are experts on stupid decisions, especially if they feel in a Zugzwang. I am not sure what German social democrats are going to do if their labor unions start to seriously push them. The threat of losing important factory jobs is potentially very destabilizing for the established left wing of the German political spectrum.