*"Why the sudden and hopeful shift? Most experts say it's a mystery While many p...

pjc50 · 2024-09-18T13:49:09 1726667349

> While many people offered theories about why the drop in deaths is happening at unprecedented speed, most experts agreed that the data doesn't yet provide clear answers

This is kind of a failure of state capacity in itself. The opioid crisis happened "out of view", and remains out of view even as the situation improves. Without more and better data it's difficult to improve.

It also doesn't help that the opioid epidemic has overlapped with COVID, stretching CDC capacity.

robertlagrant · 2024-09-18T13:02:59 1726664579

Did you see the graph? The number is at over 100k. In 2019 it was under 70k. It's a relative decline since 2023, not an absolute one.

card_zero · 2024-09-18T13:23:43 1726665823

The CDC graph shows that in the 12-month period to April 2023 it was 110k, and that reduced to 100k in the 12 months to April 2024. That is absolute - isn't it?

robertlagrant · 2024-09-18T13:36:32 1726666592

The context of my comment is that the previous commenter was saying it's to do with the legalisation of marijuana.

card_zero · 2024-09-18T13:43:05 1726666985

Oh, OK. I guess there are different ways to use the word "relative". Certainly a decline when zoomed in can look like part of an increase when zoomed out. But to be clear, this isn't one of those decline-in-the-rate-of-increase deals, which is what "relative" means to me. (Great news everybody! The rate of increase in the increasingly large numbers of deaths is slowing down!)

manvillej · 2024-09-18T13:37:34 1726666654

no. That is relative to 2023. There isn't going to be an absolute decrease because the chart started at 0 and we can't go below 0.

only absolute increases (increases that go over historical highs), relative increases (increases that do not go over historical highs), and relative decreases.

card_zero · 2024-09-18T13:45:39 1726667139

Yeah, that thought struck me too, looking at the entire graph there can never be an absolute decrease. But then, which timescale is the salient one?

robertlagrant · 2024-09-18T13:49:58 1726667398

In context it would be one that would show that marijuana legalisation was probably the cause.

card_zero · 2024-09-18T13:56:56 1726667816

Indeed, it's probably not due to marijuana legalisation, unless the resulting decline had a four year lag period for some reason, which I won't attempt to argue.

throwuxiytayq · 2024-09-21T10:06:09 1726913169

I’d be more surprised if the effect was immediate. Addiction takes years to develop, and years to recover from. I would also expect marijuana legalization to have more impact on (potential) future drug users than people already addicted to opioids.

onemoresoop · 2024-09-18T15:08:02 1726672082

Maybe it's more awareness related to fentanyl dangers? While the numbers didn't completely drop, the decline could be attributed to this. I've watched some terribly sad videos on youtube regarding opioid deaths. In some cases there were kids buying Adderall to study and little did they know that was tainted with fentanyl..